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JOL Mailbag 8/27 Sponsored by Auto-Owners Insurance

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Sorry for the delay but I was pretty wiped out by the travel the last two days getting all the way home to Atlanta.

Next Saturday night is a trap game (A La BG)-what’s Keys messaging to the team to keep everyone focused after a big emotional victory?

KQ- Key worked for the King of Trap Game messaging Nick Saban at Alabama and he is employing many of Saban's theories on his team this week, but the reality of them losing to Bowling Green and Boston College is still fresh on their minds. That should help a lot. The fact they know these kids, some date girls who go there and stuff like that will bring added motivation IMO.

How big is this win for recruiting?

KQ- It got Christian Garrett to pop (not really) but yeah they've had a lot of kids positively reaching out and kids like Katrell Webb yesterday from the 2026 class tweeting GT stuff and tagging the school and coaches. That is not normal in my experience here.

What’s the story on Chad Alexander? You may have mentioned him over the summer but if you did I missed it.

KQ- I've written about him a lot over the last two years. He was one of their best special teams players a year ago especially on punt team. He was on kickoff, kick return, punt return and punt coverage last year playing almost 170 snaps on those units over nine games (missed time with an injury). They've always been excited about him as a player. He was committed to Army and backed out to walk-on at Georgia Tech and it should pay off as he will get a ship IMO this year. He had a half dozen smaller offers like Army and Air Force and some FCS schools. He was Chadrick back then. He would've definitely been a guy CPJ would've recruited out of HS as a slotback.

In your mind what does a win like that do for the program long term, do you think this was the beginning of the turn around for Tech football?

KQ- Depends on what they do this year. This was something they needed badly with the way the schedule sets up so now they control their destiny and need to win the games they will be favored in and steal some others. If they do that then it will mean something.

I’m a fan of Jim Phillips, as he I believe he is forward-thinking and solutions oriented for the ACC. For example he has already mentioned the idea of going back to an 18-game schedule instead of 20 for mens basketball and has finally jumped on the propaganda train on par with the SEC in football. My question is do you seem him changing anything with the mandatory Notre Dame games every 3rd year for all the football teams?

Let’s use FSU as the example. They still have a great shot to be 10-2 and rep the ACC in the playoffs. But they play Notre Dame this year, so if they lose and go 9-3 they aren’t getting in. Since ND being a Top 10 team in football has no benefit to the ACC like it would in other sports, all it’s doing IMO is making it harder to get multiple ACC teams in the new CFP format. Thoughts?


KQ- Jim is a really nice and genuine guy who is trying his best in a difficult situation. I talked to him for a bit before the GT-FSU game on the sideline and you can tell he is putting a lot of thoughts in how to both fix things and make things work. I think he believes he can hold the league together.

As far as the ND thing goes, they want to play GT and will push so even if that altered GT would somehow get shafted into playing them MORE often. The playoff bit is sort of the luck of scheduling. GT has a really favorable schedule on paper next year especially if things implode at Colorado. So not playing ND that year helps GT, but say GT is rolling and they beat ND this year and lose to UGA and are 12-1 with an ACC title, that ND win could give them a top 4 spot and a bye. It cuts both ways.

How many consecutive Natties will we win? Are you excited about getting to cover the CFP in January?

KQ- Love the optimism. I'd like to cover a bowl game not within +/- 3 days of Christmas to start with.

Oddly enough, the experience of the BG game last year makes me more confident for the State game. I’m guessing Key and the team learned their lesson. Just wishful thinking or something to that?

KQ- I agree that the game against BG should be a learning lesson, but the truth is this is a very different team and staff than that one. That should make a big difference as well and you hope that Haynes King makes better decisions as well.

Luginbill and others place the FSU “loss”, not the Tech win, at the feet of DJU. What do you say?

KQ- You play with what you got. I didn't hear a lot of pundits giving GT a pass on losing to UVA in 2022 when Jeff SIms was hurt and they threw Zach Gibson in who shit his pants in that game with a bad game plan for him. Good teams win regardless of the challenges. FSU's vaunted defensive line couldn't stop GT from running their asses over. That is why they lost. Their lack of belief in the QB also falls on Mike Norvell like that two-minute drill before the first half.

Do you think Key and the training staff will take the same approach as they always do with recovery or try to optimize as much as possible? I guess there may not be much to change. But after this physical game in another country in week 0 and the traveling and what not, you’d think they may just emphasize on this.

KQ- They've worked on this stuff for a full year and knew what the issues would be with the travel. The beauty of the last game is neither side played anywhere near as many snaps as they did in most games in 2023. That should help.

If you’re the coach at another school watching yesterday’s film, how would you be game planning to beat Tech?

KQ- Loading the box and making Haynes King beat me over the top and spying him with a safety speed level guy and not a LB or a DE who he will outrun to the edge. The defense is harder to figure out because what Tyler Santucci did was very specific to what FSU was doing with DJU and their run game and that is different than how most teams play.

FOOTBALL Notes and Quotes from Key's media session today...

Kelly was in attendance but is about to head to the airport so I got the audio together from him and typed up what Coach Key had to say in his final time at the podium before the game Saturday in Chapel Hill. He seemed upbeat and excited for the trip in my opinion, but that's just me.

GT Opens as 4.5 Favorite Over Scooter and the Holes

I like the spread. I think it's about right. I'd buy GT down to -3 if I'm betting it. The offense hasn't looked strong lately. So much so that they beat themselves. I'd assume Dukes D is much stouter than UNCs, but it's tricky. GT can win this by 20+ or lose by like 3. I'd lean GT running away with it, but road games are hard.

FOOTBALL GT vs UNC 2024 Season Stat breakdown

So, I did some digging into season stats so far to get a better gauge of this matchup. UNC has looked horrible at times and we all absolutely know what GC3's defenses are capable of. That said, these numbers put a lot of things in perspective and show how close these 2 teams are. These stats are all based solely on offensive/defensive rushing and passing yards per game. I know that's not the most ideal comparison, but 6 games into the season I think it gives you a pretty good idea, and it was easier to compile the data this way. I took out both FCS opponents for each team since these rankings are only for FBS teams. GT has the slight edge IMO in these stats which is why we are a slight favorite on the road. I just hope the team brings energy and we have some fan support up there so it's not just a dead, dull environment for GT like UL and Cuse games. Hopefully we at least take the pep band this time. I'll post the stats first then a few key points below that I noticed:

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Key takeaways:

-UNC has played slightly better defenses than we have, and has overperformed both rushing and passing (although passing avg is skewed by a ton of yards in the JMU game): Avg Rush D faced is 66, and they have a net +32.8 ypg advantage, Avg Pass D faced is 56 with a net +71.5 ypg advantage. GT has faced an average 78th best rush D and 64th best pass D, with only +23.6 and +25.2 ypg advantages.

-GT and UNC have both faced bad rushing offenses so far, and have performed similarly (UNC faced avg 84th run offense with net -9.4 ypg, and GT has faced avg 105th rush offense with net -11.8 ypg). I know GT's defensive performance against these teams is partly what has caused their rush offenses to be ranked so low, but this is a big reason our rush defense is so highly ranked, and we have only held Louisville and Duke below their season average so far.

-GT has faced much better passing offenses than UNC, and has also fared much better. GT has faced an avg 39th passing offenses with a -27.6 net ypg while UNC has faced an avg 54th passing offense and giving up a net +35.2 passing ypg. The only team to have more ypg passing against GT than their season avg so far is Syracuse, with only +12 net.

-We will both be facing much better rushing offenses than we have for most of the year. We will be facing about the same ranked passing offense we've faced this year while UNC will be facing a better passing offense than they've faced most of the year.

As much as our run game and run defense has been talked about, I think the difference in this game if we win will come down to our passing offense vs UNC's pass D, and our pass defense vs their offense.
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OT: Hurricane Milton

This looks like a monster. Rare track. I just hit 175 MPH winds and pressure at 911mb. Insane intensification. It does look like it'll slide down to Cat 3 category as it approaches landfall. It would save Tampa a lot of devastation if it nudged South, but as of now the NHC has it just North of Tampa which would be a worst case scenario. That would mean the wind would be pushing water into the bay as opposed to drawing it out.

FOOTBALL Feature on Chad Alexander being put on full scholarship...

I will gladly write these kinds of features until the end of time. Nothing better than seeing an undervalued kid coming out of high school work his tail off and earn a scholarship. Congratulations to Chad and hope he continues to grow and become a big piece of the puzzle for the Georgia Tech offense.

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