Breaking down the quest for top 6 qualification and pool play at the ACCT...
...I will go ahead and pencil in 5 teams who would require a huge drop off to not qualify at this point. They are FSU, Miami, Louisville, NC State and Virginia. UVa is currently in 5th at 14-10, but they have 6 games left and all are at home...including their final series against the hapless Turkey Buzzards.
This leaves the following...(with series remaining in parenthesis)
6. GT 10-10 (6H/3R...MIA, at UVa, BC)
7. WF 10-11 (3H/6R...at BC, at VPI&SU, LOUIS)
8. ND 9-10 (6H/3R...PITT, at Cheaters, CLEM)
9. Clemson 11-13 (3H/3R...NCSU, at ND)
10. Cheaters 9-12 (6H/3R...LOUIS, ND, at NCSU)
11. Duke 10-14 (3H/3R...FSU, at Pitt)
12. BC 9-13 (3H/3R...WF, at GT)
13. Pitt 8-12 (3H/6R...at ND, at Miami, DUKE)
-I think we can knock Pitt off the list. They could get swept at Miami. Getting 2 of 3 at ND will not be easy. Just unlikely they will go 5 games over .500 in their remaining 9 games (7-2) to get over .500. Recall, the last 2 years since the ACC moved to this format, 15-14 was the record of the 6th place team auto-qualifying for pool play.
-Moving up to current #12 BC, they also are highly unlikely to go 6-0 in their remaining 6 games which is what it would take to get over .500. Let's cross them off the list. They could qualify for the top 10 and make the ACCT of course, but getting into the top 6 isn't going to happen.
-We can cross Duke off the list as well. They'd have to also go 6-0 and with FSU on the schedule and an unlikely sweep at Pitt too, the Devils will need to play much better than they have just to qualify for the ACCT play-in.
That leaves Tech competing with Wake, ND, Clemson and the Cheaters.
-The Cheaters are one of the few teams who has not lost a game due to weather this ACC season so far. They would need to go 7-2 in their remaining 9 games to finish over .500. I can't see that happening with UofL this weekend and then having to finish at NCSU. Let's deem them as unlikely.
-Clemson is in the discussion with a very high RPI to host a NCAAT regional. Yet, they will need to go 5-1 in their final 6 games to finish over .500. Tech has a head-to-head tie breaker (like we do over the Cheaters as well) over the Kitty Cats if we somehow finished in a tie with them. Clemson needs to win their series against the Pack at home and then likely sweep the Irish in South Bend. Clemson is 3-9 on the road versus the ACC so far this season. I'll deem them as doubtful - that is, to finish over .500 in the ACC. Decent chance they will finish 15-15 (like the Cheaters, another of the few teams who have not lost a game due to weather so far).
We're now down to the Deacs and Irish.
-Notre Dame needs to go 6-3 in their final 9 games to finish over .500. They have 6 home games left against Pitt and Clemson with a road series at the Cheaters sandwiched in between. Of course, they are the lowest RPI in the Atlantic and are coming off a doubleheader sweep loss at home to Ohio U. Sweeping Pitt at home this weekend would make their task much easier. I deem them though as doubtful.
-Wake Forest needs to go 6-3 also to finish over .500. They have 6 roadies left starting today at BC and then next week at Blacksburg before finishing at home with 3 against very tough Louisville who will have a lot to play for. Even with a likely series win at VPI&SU, going 6-3 will be a tall task.
Tech needs to go 5-4 to finish over .500. Going 3-3 against the Canes and French makes that task much more achievable with very winnable series games coming home against BC. Will be fun to follow and watch over the final 3 weekends for sure.
