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Thoughts on the game Saturday...

stinger78

Well-Known Member
Mar 19, 2016
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I'm normally nervous about this game, but much less so this year. Part of it is mellowing out with age and the other is, I just don't see it as that critical. Let me say, I see a good bit of upside if we win, but very little down side if we lose. Therefore, I am hopeful of a W, but will not be bummed if we lose. The reason?

We are obviously still a very flawed team this year. IMO, the issue is primarily a consistency issue at OL. Some good players there for us, whom I will always admire, but injuries and intangibles seem to have sapped any consistency from the group. As a result, our OL has under-performed for two years running now, however, our young OL appear to have the right stuff and the future is bright. This is really the major issue with our O, but it is not a non-starter. We have won 7 games with this group, and have basically an even chance to win this Saturday. A 9-win season is not a long shot at all, and that's not a bad place to be with a flawed team.

For this Saturday, on O we have to pound the ball and wear down this UGA D. They are good athletically, but have shown themselves vulnerable this year. Last week, MM had 97 yard at the half, including the long TD run, but he consistently made positive yardage. I would pound UGA's front 7 with MM and DM until they hurt. Give each of them 20 carries and make UGA bring everyone into the box, then pop it over them. We absolutely cannot give up negative plays on sacks, bad pitches, and lost yards. Quick hitting stuff will wear that D down. I'd also play MJ some and let him show them what a midline is all about. Just really mix it up between the tackles. The quick rocket toss to MM, the off-tackle play, and the counter option could be money plays for us. if we turn the ball over more than once, we're toast. UGA is +7 in TO margin. They cannot come out of this game at +9 or more.

On D we have to refuse the big play and make them settle for as many FG's as possible. If we can dial up some pressure on Eason against that middling OL of theirs, it would be a benefit getting them off the field, and getting a gift or two. They are not scary on O, but with their running game they can hold the ball on us, if we do not show up to play. They are a dangerous passing team, especially if we let Eason sit in the pocket forever, but they have been too inconsistent to be feared. Our D just needs to show up ready to hang it all out and play inspired ball.

ST's need to show up. No big returns by Mckenzie. Field position will be critical. Also, FG's won't win this game. It's going to take TD's. Butker has to hit his shots, though. Every point will be crucial. This will be a close one, and may be another low-scoring game like last year.

Like I typed above, I feel good about the game. Not terribly confident, but not unconfident either. i think it will be another ugly, ugly game. The team that is willing to play with guts to the final whistle will win. May it be the good guys.
 
It'll be interesting to see what happens against a new coaching staff with this team. I know last week they started working on GT. I wonder if they are worried about stopping Thomas as other teams would be? UVA basically sold out to stop the dive and the QB and GT was able to get long runs after getting past the second level.

I worry more about the defense. If GT plays the same style as they did against UVA they are going to get burned. Several missed passes in that game that dwags QB won't miss. In the past they have generally taken a similar approach as we saw Saturday. Run the ball, move the chains and use the clock.
 
I still see the team with the most points winning this game. The problem is I don't know which team that will be. If you had told me last year we would hold them to 13 I would have said we would win.
 
stech, you are a sage. You have hit the nail on the head. Let's look at scoring.

UGA is #103 in scoring offense this season.
They have scored 31 TD's and kicked 14 FG's (By comparison, we have 39 and 11).
They have scored 13 passing TD's vs. 7 INT's (we have 9 TD's/2 INT's).
They have scored 14 rushing TD's (we have 28).
They have scored 2 KO/punt return TD's (we have 1).
They have scored 2 defensive TD's, 1 pick-6 and 1 fumble return (we have 1).

So they have scored 27 offensive TD's in 11 games - about 2.5/game, just over 1 FG/game. They are not an offensive juggernaut, although they undoubtedly have improved over the past month. Against our D, the worst 3rd down D in the country, I'm gonna give them the benefit of the doubt and say they'll put up 3 TD and 2 FG: 27 points.

I'd like to see us continue to play the WR in front of us and concentrate on getting to Eason and stopping the run. Make them pass, disrupt Eason, and wait for the gift. He's thrown 7 of them this year.

Question: Can we put up more than 27 on UGA's D?

CPJ is 4-4 at putting up more than that on UGAg's D. He did it in 2008 (45) in a win and with a lot of offensive talent (thought one was an MB INT return), in 2010 (34) in a loss against a young and challenged UGA D, in 2013 (34) in an OT loss, and in 2014 (30) in an OT win, with perhaps his best overall offensive talent.

It will be tough, but the D has to come up with a solid performance - which they have done against the more pedestrian offenses this year. Miami only scored 21 offensive points on us. GSU only scored 24. VPI only 20. Clemson only scored 26! They just cannot do what they did against Pitt, UNCheat, or Dook. If we get that D Saturday, we lose.

This game is very winnable, but we have to produce on both sides of the ball, contain McKenzie on ST's, hit our FG's when we get them, score in the RZ and not turn the darn ball over. That is just basic football - we ought to be able to do that. But I'm not particularly optimistic.
 
Keys
1 CB's not playing with a yard cushion.
2 Putting pressure on Eason don't give him time to look for the open receiver> ( if we don't do this first two it will be a long day.
3 Make sure tackles wrap up
4) On offense have a few quick scores and some long drives.
5) Hit them in the mouth at the start and don't let up. b
6) Don't let JT try and win the game by himself. use all the backs.
7) Be able to run up the middle.
8) don't fall behind and let the crowd in the game.

This is a game we can win if we don't do stupid mistakes, It's also one we can lose if we let them get ahead and start building confidence.
If you want 9 wins this year this is the one you have to have, win this and more people will buy bowl game tickets. ( Remember 1989 and what happen the next year ) .
 
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We objectively have a 50-50 shot at winning this game, so we are going into this round of COFH shooting way below par. If we don't win this one, I'll view it through the lens of missed opportunity. Even if we aren't molesting the hedges on Saturday afternoon, the good news is that our program is on an upward trajectory that figures to peak in 2018 and 2019. The arrow is pointing up.
 
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So they have scored 27 offensive TD's in 11 games - about 2.5/game, just over 1 FG/game. They are not an offensive juggernaut, although they undoubtedly have improved over the past month. Against our D, the worst 3rd down D in the country, I'm gonna give them the benefit of the doubt and say they'll put up 3 TD and 2 FG: 27 points.

I'd like to see us continue to play the WR in front of us and concentrate on getting to Eason and stopping the run. Make them pass, disrupt Eason, and wait for the gift. He's thrown 7 of them this year.

Question: Can we put up more than 27 on UGA's D?

Answer: Yes... 1 more.

GO JACKETS!!!
 
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