It was a year ago at this time that the latest bombshell in the ever-changing world of college football happened with Oklahoma and Texas announcing formally their departure from the Big XII and move to the SEC. Thursday we got a new bombshell with the departure of the USC and UCLA to the Big Ten, two of the tentpoles for the Pac 12.
So everyone is asking me what comes next?
To be honest, I think nothing in the short term.
These moves seem to be more opportunistic by the Big Ten and SEC than some of the prior moves that stuck those leagues with teams they probably wish they didn't add back in the first rush to add teams ironically in the wake of ACC expansion when the league expanded twice in the 2000s and then again in the early 2010s.
What happens to the ACC?
For now nothing. The Grant of Rights is a major hurdle for any team looking to leave and depending on which rumor you read that could be just about any more player in the league. Clearly Clemson and FSU are the two outliers in the conference, but they have been unable to move despite strong desires from some in their fanbases for such a move. Why? The numbers don't work and they are not compelling enough yet for it to happen. Can that change? Sure. Will it change? No idea.
The ACC sits firmly as the third banana in the meantime but the national media and college sports fans fail to remember out of the all of the teams and current alliances the ACC has the second most national champions over the last 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 or 33 years behind only the SEC.
1990- GT
1991- Miami* not in the ACC at the time
1993- FSU
1999- FSU
2001- Miami* not in the ACC at the time
2013- FSU
2016- Clemson
2018- Clemson
Non ACC/SEC during that stretch
1991- Washington
1994- Nebraska
2000- Oklahoma & soon to be SEC
2002- Ohio State
2004- USC
2005- Texas & soon to be SEC
2014- Ohio State
Three Big XII teams including two headed to the SEC
Two Pac 12
Twice Ohio State
ACC teams while in the ACC won in 90, 93, 99, 13, 16 and 18.
So the league can punch as long as they have a seat at the table. For now I expect there will be a seat at the table.
What do I think happens in the near future?
Jim Phillips has to try to get ND in the ACC and add one more team or a couple like WV or Kansas or Baylor or someone who moves the needle or they could add a West Coast wing but I think that is too out of the box for the ACC. They do not want to be the APCC Atlantic/Pacific Coast Conference.
I think you may see a merger with the Big XII and the Pac-12 and see the Big XII maybe try to dump some of the teams they are set to add next year. How that would work? No idea, but it would make more sense than anything else I'm seeing.
What does that look like?
ACC adds say ND and WV though I'm sure the Big 10 will fight like hell to try to get ND who has the least expensive buyout in the grant of rights, just the $50 million-plus their TV rights for hoops, baseball and Olympic sports whereas everyone else is on the hook for all TV rights including football which is the big enchilada.
Big XII/Pac-12 Mash Up.
CENTRAL
Baylor
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
TCU
Texas Tech
WEST
Arizona
Arizona State
BYU
Cal
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
Utah
Washington
Washington State
18 team league
ACC adds ND and WV and moves up to 18 as well.
Is that viable? I think so, the TV money is the biggest issue and why maybe adding Pac 12 teams to the ACC to make a true mega conference would work, but that seems like a pipedream.
Anyways I'm getting ready to go on vacation. The sky isn't falling, but there are a lot of clouds at the moment. Keep the faith, support your program and support JOL. I'll be gone but not totally offline as I am not capable of that unless I leave the country. Russell is in charge while I'm away, be nice.
I love all of you even the nutty ones.
KQ
