Um, no. His job is to get three outs. Which, he should have got.
OFFICIAL 2025 Braves/MLB Season Thread
- Thread starter Russell Johnson
- Start date
These are the least joyful walk offs I can remember haha. Man, so hard to enjoy when the team is struggling their way into them!
7 straight one run games.
5th time in about 2 weeks with a chance to get to 500 tomorrow. Nats are throwing........ Mike Soroka.
We've lost our previous 4 chances by 1 run each. Hopefully Schwellenbach pitches a gem and they get to 500 finally.
5th time in about 2 weeks with a chance to get to 500 tomorrow. Nats are throwing........ Mike Soroka.
We've lost our previous 4 chances by 1 run each. Hopefully Schwellenbach pitches a gem and they get to 500 finally.
Will Soroka pitch a gem against the Braves and become the next AA Annual Special?
Riley isn't living up to his contract...only a .798 OPS. Shift White to 3B and sit Riley.
Minnie Minoso had a career .299/.387./.461
With RISP he was .307/.410/.475
He had 1722 ABs with RISP. That means he had about 12 more hits in those ABs than one would expect him to have over his career BA rate. OBP and SLG were slightly higher, as well but I'm not doing that math.
Streak is still alive at 7 games in a row decided by 1 run. 9/11 in May. Only George bush can save us
George Bush doesn't care about Braves people.
Being a Tech Man and therefore a mathematical genius, I decided to run some numbers. Murphy has been injured a good bit (despite a couple of those stints via HBP), but I wanted to see how he compares to Contreras if healthy.
Step 1: Understand the WAR Rates
- William Contreras: WAR: 9.7
- Games: (Let’s call this number G)
• Sean Murphy:
• WAR: 6.2
• Games: G - 129
We want to scale Murphy’s WAR up to G games.
Step 2: Calculate WAR per Game for Murphy
Murphy’s WAR per game:
6.2 / (G - 129)
To estimate his WAR over G games:
(6.2 / (G - 129)) × G
This simplifies to:
6.2 × (G / (G - 129))
Step 3: Plug in a Reasonable Estimate for G
Let’s assume William Contreras played 350 games since 2022 (this is close to accurate through early 2025). Then:
(6.2 / 221) × 350 ≈ 9.8 WAR
When adjusted for playing time, Sean Murphy and William Contreras are essentially equal in value by WAR since 2022. Murphy has been a bit more valuable per game, but Contreras has had more consistent availability, which has real-world value too.
Step 1: Understand the WAR Rates
- William Contreras: WAR: 9.7
- Games: (Let’s call this number G)
• Sean Murphy:
• WAR: 6.2
• Games: G - 129
We want to scale Murphy’s WAR up to G games.
Step 2: Calculate WAR per Game for Murphy
Murphy’s WAR per game:
6.2 / (G - 129)
To estimate his WAR over G games:
(6.2 / (G - 129)) × G
This simplifies to:
6.2 × (G / (G - 129))
Step 3: Plug in a Reasonable Estimate for G
Let’s assume William Contreras played 350 games since 2022 (this is close to accurate through early 2025). Then:
- Contreras: 9.7 WAR in 350 games
- Murphy: 6.2 WAR in 221 games
(6.2 / 221) × 350 ≈ 9.8 WAR
When adjusted for playing time, Sean Murphy and William Contreras are essentially equal in value by WAR since 2022. Murphy has been a bit more valuable per game, but Contreras has had more consistent availability, which has real-world value too.
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That’s the point. Or any people for that matter. We cant be saved, only save ourselves. However, we can still be destroyed
This is all well and good, but what about preseason lists from B/R?
Can't believe I'm doing this, but why not? I've been kinda quiet in here recently.
Contreras is 1/2 the price of Murphy, but that will likely go up when his option expires after 2026 unless he tanks. Both have been injured disrupting the numbers (Contreras is playing thru a fractured finger), but Murph much more so than Willy. He's had some crummy luck there in the box. Contreras has been much more durable at the end of the day tho.
At this point (2023 season-Present) I'd prefer Contreras but it's not some landslide decision. Murphy is not the ungodly player he was his first 6 weeks in a Braves uniform, but he's also not the oft-injured / struggling player he's been since then IMO. Somewhere in the middle.
They're both really good ballplayers at their position. I did think the trade was a bit odd at the time given their similar talents, but thought we upgraded. I'm not so sure now, but time will tell.
Contreras is 1/2 the price of Murphy, but that will likely go up when his option expires after 2026 unless he tanks. Both have been injured disrupting the numbers (Contreras is playing thru a fractured finger), but Murph much more so than Willy. He's had some crummy luck there in the box. Contreras has been much more durable at the end of the day tho.
At this point (2023 season-Present) I'd prefer Contreras but it's not some landslide decision. Murphy is not the ungodly player he was his first 6 weeks in a Braves uniform, but he's also not the oft-injured / struggling player he's been since then IMO. Somewhere in the middle.
They're both really good ballplayers at their position. I did think the trade was a bit odd at the time given their similar talents, but thought we upgraded. I'm not so sure now, but time will tell.
Good post. The idiots in this thread who continue to harp on the catcher position don’t seem to realize that this is problem number 69 on the list of problems with the Braves
This is good, but where’s the math? One is of us actually did some work. 😉
Sales guy don’t math- only behind the scenes. Gab and the written word are our tools.
Agree it is not near the top of the list. If Murphy stays healthy his numbers are much better and likely at least comparable to Contreras- although I do still think Willy has been the better player and is the better big league hitter.
The lineup- in totality- has been incredibly frustrating since 2023. I did not expect the 2023 numbers again, but I also could never fathom this drop off. It will be great having Acuna back, but he’s also not going to fix the other 8 and was pretty pedestrian before getting hurt again in 2024. It’s pretty crazy we’ve won so many ugly 1-run games, but a testament to the patchwork staff and made over pen.
Just win- all that matters. You’ll drive yourself crazy trying to figure out / psychologize baseball players for 6 months out of the year. I’ve all but given up on seeing technical adjustments from more than one guy in our lineup. But if your pitching holds up and you go on a heater in October the other 162 don’t matter. It happens every year across MLB.
Close.
Think more along the lines of if Virginia Woolf and the Wolf of Wall Street banged one out.
Hoooooooooooooooowl!
This is so stupid. There are long stretches where Murphy has been useless at the plate.
I learned that WAR is a useless metric from this.
Murphy didn’t even have the #1 spot locked down over TD the last couple of years.
Really dumb stuff but this is the lowest iq baseball board I e ever been a part of.
FFS.. You again? Get a hobby
This is the only fact you have contributed to this thread. You shouldn’t be so hard on yourself, though
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