So, I did some digging into season stats so far to get a better gauge of this matchup. UNC has looked horrible at times and we all absolutely know what GC3's defenses are capable of. That said, these numbers put a lot of things in perspective and show how close these 2 teams are. These stats are all based solely on offensive/defensive rushing and passing yards per game. I know that's not the most ideal comparison, but 6 games into the season I think it gives you a pretty good idea, and it was easier to compile the data this way. I took out both FCS opponents for each team since these rankings are only for FBS teams. GT has the slight edge IMO in these stats which is why we are a slight favorite on the road. I just hope the team brings energy and we have some fan support up there so it's not just a dead, dull environment for GT like UL and Cuse games. Hopefully we at least take the pep band this time. I'll post the stats first then a few key points below that I noticed:
Key takeaways:
-UNC has played slightly better defenses than we have, and has overperformed both rushing and passing (although passing avg is skewed by a ton of yards in the JMU game): Avg Rush D faced is 66, and they have a net +32.8 ypg advantage, Avg Pass D faced is 56 with a net +71.5 ypg advantage. GT has faced an average 78th best rush D and 64th best pass D, with only +23.6 and +25.2 ypg advantages.
-GT and UNC have both faced bad rushing offenses so far, and have performed similarly (UNC faced avg 84th run offense with net -9.4 ypg, and GT has faced avg 105th rush offense with net -11.8 ypg). I know GT's defensive performance against these teams is partly what has caused their rush offenses to be ranked so low, but this is a big reason our rush defense is so highly ranked, and we have only held Louisville and Duke below their season average so far.
-GT has faced much better passing offenses than UNC, and has also fared much better. GT has faced an avg 39th passing offenses with a -27.6 net ypg while UNC has faced an avg 54th passing offense and giving up a net +35.2 passing ypg. The only team to have more ypg passing against GT than their season avg so far is Syracuse, with only +12 net.
-We will both be facing much better rushing offenses than we have for most of the year. We will be facing about the same ranked passing offense we've faced this year while UNC will be facing a better passing offense than they've faced most of the year.
As much as our run game and run defense has been talked about, I think the difference in this game if we win will come down to our passing offense vs UNC's pass D, and our pass defense vs their offense.
Key takeaways:
-UNC has played slightly better defenses than we have, and has overperformed both rushing and passing (although passing avg is skewed by a ton of yards in the JMU game): Avg Rush D faced is 66, and they have a net +32.8 ypg advantage, Avg Pass D faced is 56 with a net +71.5 ypg advantage. GT has faced an average 78th best rush D and 64th best pass D, with only +23.6 and +25.2 ypg advantages.
-GT and UNC have both faced bad rushing offenses so far, and have performed similarly (UNC faced avg 84th run offense with net -9.4 ypg, and GT has faced avg 105th rush offense with net -11.8 ypg). I know GT's defensive performance against these teams is partly what has caused their rush offenses to be ranked so low, but this is a big reason our rush defense is so highly ranked, and we have only held Louisville and Duke below their season average so far.
-GT has faced much better passing offenses than UNC, and has also fared much better. GT has faced an avg 39th passing offenses with a -27.6 net ypg while UNC has faced an avg 54th passing offense and giving up a net +35.2 passing ypg. The only team to have more ypg passing against GT than their season avg so far is Syracuse, with only +12 net.
-We will both be facing much better rushing offenses than we have for most of the year. We will be facing about the same ranked passing offense we've faced this year while UNC will be facing a better passing offense than they've faced most of the year.
As much as our run game and run defense has been talked about, I think the difference in this game if we win will come down to our passing offense vs UNC's pass D, and our pass defense vs their offense.
Last edited:
