Wouldn't ya know it? After 14 weeks and 70 plays (5 a week), I am at 35 to the good and 35 to the bad.
With only 1 game this week before the silly season begins (where there is often very good value wagering on those exhibitions)...I am going with...
...ARMY +22 over Navy at Philly this Saturday. While Navy is obviously the better team and the Black Knights enter this game with a 2-9 record, a closer look advises this game will be closer than the experts in Nevada think.
Army has lost only 1 game this season by more than 17 pts. That was to Duke back in early October, 44-3, when the Blue Devils were hitting on all cylinders (and had just played GT 2 weeks earlier to get a glimpse of a similar funky offense).
Army's other 8 losses were by 2, 5, 3, 6, 7, 17, 3 and 10. Navy is obviously dominating this series having won 13 in a row...dating back to when CPJ arrived and started taking over this series. However, a closer look advises the Mids have only won by 20+ once in the last 6 meetings. The games between the academies (including when USAFA faces USMA or USNA) tend to be low scoring and tight throughout because their systems are similar and you get max effort out of everyone involved.
Navy wins the game, but does not cover that many pts.
With only 1 game this week before the silly season begins (where there is often very good value wagering on those exhibitions)...I am going with...
...ARMY +22 over Navy at Philly this Saturday. While Navy is obviously the better team and the Black Knights enter this game with a 2-9 record, a closer look advises this game will be closer than the experts in Nevada think.
Army has lost only 1 game this season by more than 17 pts. That was to Duke back in early October, 44-3, when the Blue Devils were hitting on all cylinders (and had just played GT 2 weeks earlier to get a glimpse of a similar funky offense).
Army's other 8 losses were by 2, 5, 3, 6, 7, 17, 3 and 10. Navy is obviously dominating this series having won 13 in a row...dating back to when CPJ arrived and started taking over this series. However, a closer look advises the Mids have only won by 20+ once in the last 6 meetings. The games between the academies (including when USAFA faces USMA or USNA) tend to be low scoring and tight throughout because their systems are similar and you get max effort out of everyone involved.
Navy wins the game, but does not cover that many pts.
