Week 12 CFB ATS plays

[GTJT622]

A third straight 3-2 week pushes the season record barely over .500 to 28-27. As the season winds down, here's 5 more for this week...

Utah -2 over UCLA, 3:30 FOX
Utah has played a tough schedule and is 2-1 versus the top 30 in the nation. UCLA has only played one game against a top 30 team and lost it by 21 to Stanford. Utah is at home coming off a loss and is fighting for the Pac 12 South title and chance to win the Pac 12 at the conference championship game. The Utes are tied currently with Southern Cal at 5-2. Utah has UCLA at home and then hosts Colorado (which should be a win). Southern Cal has a much tougher road as they travel to Oregon as 4.5 pt dogs this weekend before playing cross-town rival, UCLA, in the finale. With a W at home over the Bruins, the Utes have a great shot at winning the division. I think they get it done and cover the small number.

Navy -12 over Tulsa, 7:00 CBS-SN
The Mids are like a well-oiled machine right now and playing with great confidence. They won't look past the Golden Hurricane on the road to their huge Black Friday matchup against undefeated Houston to potentially decide a Group of 5 NYD MEG participant. Navy's only blemish remains the Irish in South Bend. Tulsa's 5 wins are over FAU, New Mexico, LA-Monroe, SMU, and UCF. Their losses have all been against good teams but also by double digits. Disciplined Navy gets it done here.

Arkansas -3.5 over Mississippi State, 7:00 ESPN
The Bulldogs are riding the coattails of the overreaction of the SEC West's strength LAST YEAR. They simply aren't very good. They haven't beaten anybody this season worth anything. I thought the win over Auburn might have been a decent win but after watching some of Auburn's butt ugly offense against the Cesspool this past Saturday, I am convinced they suck as well. The Hogs OTOH sport the 7th strongest schedule in the nation per Sagarin's and they have won 4 straight coming into this game hot. Their last 2 wins include road victories at Ole Miss and at LSU (by 17 pts). After a very tough start in September, HC Bret Bielema has done an admirable job turning this season around. Note, this ARK team reminds me a bit of the Jackets team that got on a late season roll last year and just steamrolled opponents.

Missouri +8.5 over Tennessee, 7:15 ESPN-2
The Vols have a bad tendency to play to the level of their competition. They can rise up and take Bama to the final gun. Same at the Swamp. But then, their immaturity shows when they are established as 40 pt chalk hosting a pathetic North Texas bunch this past Saturday and then proceed to essentially sleep walk through the game with little intensity for a yawning 24-0 win. Mizzou has come together on two fronts. First, the team unified in its stand against racism. Whether you support that or not is irrelevant. The fact remains the team has come together...and it showed in their win over BYU this past weekend as home dogs. Second, head coach Gary Pinkel announced officially yesterday this will be his last home game as he is stepping down after a nice career in Columbia. I think the Vols win outright (though a Mizzou win won't surprise me), but don't cover more than a TD against a stingy Tigers defense.

Notre Dame -17 over Boston College, 7:30 NBC Sports Net
This game at Fenway Park is technically a home game for the Irish in Boston. BC's offense as we all know is just putrid. ND needs the style points to maintain their status as a likely playoff candidate. The Irish held Wake to 7 pts in South Bend this past weekend. That's about the most BC likely gets themselves. The Irish should put up at least 28 pts as they have in 8 of their 10 games this season. An Irish shutout is possible.

GLA!

 

[RyanS12]

From what I'm seeing this is your week to run the table. All 5 looks like great plays. I'm taking a beating this year....

 

[GTJT622]

I only post 5 each week for the season-long record keeping, but here are some others I have my eye on FWIW starting tonight...

Tue 6:00 (ESPN-2) Toledo-Bowling Green over 70
*This is a good rivalry with good teams. BGU throws the ball deep about once every 4 or 5 plays. Toledo will have to score to keep up and I think they will. Should be a fun MACtion midweek game to watch.

Wed 8:00 (ESPN-U) Central Michigan -11 over Kent State
*Kent State leads the nation in punts per game. Need I say more? Their offense is horrible. CMU should score at least 30 in this game and I can't see KSU getting into double digits.

Wed 8:00 (ESPN-2) Northern Illinois -3 over Western Michigan
*Another good matchup featuring 2 of the best MAC teams. NIU is just playing really well right now (won 5 in a row) and has the Broncs at home where NIU is 4-0 this year. Huskies keep rolling as they pretty much can lock up the MAC West with the W here (host Ohio in season finale where they will be favored by double digits and have the tie breaker over Toledo...who may lose tonight as 7 pt underdogs at Bowling Green).

Fri 9:30 (ESPN-2) Air Force +12 over Boise State
*BSU just lost to New Mexico on the Smurf Turf this past weekend. In rolls the Fly Boys on a 5-game winning streak and having won 6 of their last 7 and getting a dozen? I'll take 'em.

Sat 12:00 (Big 10 Network) Indiana +2.5 over Maryland
*The Hoosiers are easily the best team in the nation without a conference win. They blew a late lead after rolling over the normally-stout Wolverines defense on the ground this past weekend and then lost in OT. They took Ohio State to the wire and easily could've won that game. They get pts on the road against a Twerps bunch who also is winless in the Big 10 and is on a 7-game losing streak. Indiana was fortunate to get UAB RB Jordan Howard who rushed for near a mile with the Blazers last year before being granted immediate eligibility to transfer in the wake of UAB dismantling its FB program at the time. He wound up in Bloomington and has already rushed for 1,199 yards. He should roll over the Twerps Saturday and the Hoosiers get over the hump with finally a Big 10 win. Remember his name as he may be dominating your fantasy football league on Sundays in the future. (note, a W sets up a season finale and very winnable game at Purdue for a shot to get to 6 wins and a MEG qualification...more motivation)

Sat 12:00 (ESPN) North Carolina -6.5 over Virginia Tech
*There will be tons of emotion and all for Beamer's last home game. But then, after a few series the Tar Holes offensive machine should take over this game. UNC has PLENTY to play for this week and the atmosphere around Beamer's last at Lane Stadium may serve more as a distraction than anything else. Lay the points...I don't think the average-to-mediocre Hokies offense can keep up.

Sat 3:30 (ESPN-3) Virginia -2.5 over Duke
*The French can't win on the road though they've played well. They can and will win at home as they are an entirely different team at SSS. Duke walks in like a wounded dog and may get a licking here as none of these French players have ever beaten Duke...I think they will and perhaps by double digits.

Sat 3:30 (Big 10 Network) Northwestern +10.5 over Wisconsin
*The Cats are not good front running favorites, but I love them as a dog. Especially getting double digits with their defense which should keep them closely in this game.

Sat 3:30 (ABC) Michigan State +13 over Ohio State
*Similar statement in that I'm not wild about Michigan State laying a lot of pts, but I love when they get 'em. I think QB Cook returns and will be able to move the Spartans and score enough to keep this one close...and perhaps even pull out the straight up win over a Buckeyes team who simply has not been challenged much by strong teams this season. (note, if Cook does not play then scratch/avoid this play)

 

[BornAJacket]

lot's of football left to play

 

[BornAJacket]

I don't know how you are able to look into this many games....

 

[RyanS12]

Only one I'm different on is WMU. And you are correct about Mich St with points. I've taken them 4 times to cover this season and only came through once. Last week vs Maryland. I think Unc rolls VT, Indiana wins by 7,and Toledo / Bowling Green turns into a basketball game.

 

[GTJT622]

The additional thing I like about NIU is there is something to be said about playing at home after having spent a lot of time on the road. NIU has played 6 of its last 8 games on the road. WMU has played conversely 4 of its last 6 at Waldo World.

 

[Buzzforlife]

I don't know how you are able to look into this many games....

He has 622 X/times the vision of us mortals.

 

[Texwood]

I don't know how you are able to look into this many games....

He's got "associates" on the payroll, that's how. Cross GTJT, and one of either Guido or Giuseppe will mess up your world.