Each week of the football season, professional guest picker Brian Edwards will join us to give his analysis and picks on a few games he likes each week…enjoy and good luck!!!
By Brian Edwards
Last Week: 3-1
Overall: 8-3-1 – He’s HOT FOLKS!!!!!
Arkansas +2 vs. Texas A&M (in Arlington, TX.):
Let’s start with my favorite Week 4 pick. I made Arkansas (3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) a four-point favorite.
The Razorbacks are led by quarterback KJ Jefferson and RB Rocket Sanders, who is fourth in the nation in rushing yards (440) and second in yards from scrimmage per game (185.7 YPG). Sanders is averaging 6.7 yards per carry, has three rushing TDs and eight catches for 117 yards and one TD.
Jefferson has completed 70.5 percent of his passes for 770 yards with a 6/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has 169 rushing yards and three TDs.
Texas A&M is one-dimensional on offense. Making his first start for the Aggies, QB Max Johnson played mistake-free football. However, his 10 completions on 20 attempts for 140 passing yards isn’t scaring any SEC defensive coordinators.
Arkansas is ranked sixth in the country in run defense to date, limiting foes to only 68.3 rushing yards per game. The Razorbacks win outright and I won’t be surprised if they do so by 2-3 TDs.
North Carolina -1.5 vs. Notre Dame:
Mack Brown’s team has had two weeks to prepare for the Fighting Irish, who were fortunate to win a 24-17 decision over California last week. Marcus Freeman’s squad was trailing 7-0 when it missed a field goal in the first half. A completely bogus offsides call on the Golden Bears – one that replays showed to clearly be egregious – gave Notre Dame new life and led to a TD two plays later.
The week of rest did wonders for UNC WR Josh Downs, a third-team All-American selection in 2021 when he had 101 receptions for 1,335 yards and eight TDs. Downs is set to return after missing back-to-back games injured. He had two TD catches in a Week Zero victory over Florida A&M.
Even without Downs in the last two games, redshirt freshman QB Drake Maye has thrived. In his first three career starts, he has connected on 74.5 percent of his throws for 930 yards with a stellar 11/1 TD-INT ratio. Maye is also making plays with his legs, rushing for 146 yards and one TD with a 5.6 YPC average.
UNC is ranked No. 5 nationally in total offense, No. 6 in scoring (51.3 points per game), No. 13 in rushing yards and No. 21 in passing yards. True freshman RB Omario Hampton has run for a team-high 228 yards and five TDs with a 6.0 YPC average.
The Tar Heels have issues defensively, but so does Notre Dame on the offensive side of the ball. The Fighting Irish is ranked No. 113 in the country (out of 131 FBS teams) in total offense, No. 107 in passing yards, No. 103 in rushing yards and No. 116 in scoring (18.3 PPG).
Clemson -7 at Wake Forest:
Clemson has won 13 games in a row over Wake Forest, including 12 wins by margins of 14 points or more. The Tigers have 10 victories over the Demon Deacons by at least 20 points during their 13-game winning streak.
Wake Forest couldn’t run the ball in last week’s 37-36 home win over Liberty. The Flames limited Dave Clawson’s team to 21 rushing yards on 26 attempts.
Clemson is a still a work in progress offensively, but it’s facing a soft Wake Forest defense. D.J Uiagalelei has played better, throwing for 662 yards with a 5/1 TD-INT ratio. He also has 117 rushing yards, one TD and a 4.3 YPC average.
RB Will Shipley has 249 rushing yards, six TDs and a 7.8 YPC average through three games. Look for Shipley to be the catalyst as Clemson covers this single-digit number.
Florida +10.5 at Tennessee:
Florida owns a 16-1 record in the last 17 head-to-head meetings with Tennessee, including 11 wins by double-digit margins. The Gators have won five in a row over the Volunteers by an average margin of 20.0 PPG.
My sources in Tennessee tell me that Vols’ star WR Cedric Tillman is going to miss this game with a high-ankle sprain. Tillman garnered second-team All-SEC honors in 2021 when he had 64 receptions for 1,081 yards and 12 TDs. He already has 17 catches for 246 yards and one TD this season.
Over the summer, most books had Josh Heupel’s team favored in the 4 to 5.5 range in their Games of the Year. It says here that if Pittsburgh QB Kedon Slovis didn’t miss the second half of its 34-27 overtime loss to Tennessee two weeks ago, the Panthers would’ve won that game. If that were the case, UT would simply have home wins over Ball St. and Akron, two of the worst teams in the country, and the narrative around this matchup would be completely different.
Florida is going to be without LB Ventrell Miller (ankle) and its run defense looked awful without him last week. And yes, QB Anthony Richardson has had consecutive bad performances. However, I think Richardson gets back to making plays with his legs in Knoxville.
In a rivalry dominated by Florida for most of the last three decades, there’s no way I’m turning down the Gators as double-digit underdogs.
Vanderbilt at Alabama ‘OVER’ 34 in the first half:
I’m confident Alabama is going to score 35 on its own by halftime. I prefer going the first-half route here because Nick Saban is prone to hitting the brakes offensively when a game gets out of hand. At least in the first 30 minutes of play, we know Alabama’s starters on offense will be in the game.
For a smaller amount, I’m also on ‘OVER’ 58.5 for the game. The ‘over’ is 4-0 for Vandy with combined scores of 73, 73, 70 and 66 points. True freshman QB AJ Swann threw for 255 yards and four TDs without an interception in his first start last week. Swann has six TD passes without being intercepted this year.
Charlotte at South Carolina ‘OVER’ 34.5 in the first half: With star QB Chris Reynolds returning from an injury (that kept him out for two games) to throw for 401 yards and five TDs in a 42-41 win at Georgia St., Charlotte can now put up a lot of points. The 49ers are wretched on defense, ranked dead last nationally in total defense. They’re ranked No. 128 in pass defense, No. 129 at defending the run and No. 129 in scoring ‘D’ (45.3 PPG).
Even though South Carolina’s offense was shut down by top-ranked Georgia last week, this unit still has plenty of playmakers in QB Spencer Rattler, WR Antwane ‘Juice’ Wells, RB Marshawn Lloyd and TE Austin Stogner. That group should feast on a Charlotte defense that offers little resistance.
By Brian Edwards
- @vegasbedwards on Twitter (linkage: https://twitter.com/vegasbedwards)
- MajorWager.com Managing Editor (linkage: https://www.majorwager.com/)
- VegasInsider.com Senior Handicapper (linkage: https://www.vegasinsider.com/handicappers/brian-edwards/)
- Owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com (linkage: http://brianedwardssports.com/) Host of the BetCFB Podcast (linkage: https://www.vegasinsider.com/shows/bet-cfb/)
Last Week: 3-1
Overall: 8-3-1 – He’s HOT FOLKS!!!!!
Arkansas +2 vs. Texas A&M (in Arlington, TX.):
Let’s start with my favorite Week 4 pick. I made Arkansas (3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) a four-point favorite.
The Razorbacks are led by quarterback KJ Jefferson and RB Rocket Sanders, who is fourth in the nation in rushing yards (440) and second in yards from scrimmage per game (185.7 YPG). Sanders is averaging 6.7 yards per carry, has three rushing TDs and eight catches for 117 yards and one TD.
Jefferson has completed 70.5 percent of his passes for 770 yards with a 6/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has 169 rushing yards and three TDs.
Texas A&M is one-dimensional on offense. Making his first start for the Aggies, QB Max Johnson played mistake-free football. However, his 10 completions on 20 attempts for 140 passing yards isn’t scaring any SEC defensive coordinators.
Arkansas is ranked sixth in the country in run defense to date, limiting foes to only 68.3 rushing yards per game. The Razorbacks win outright and I won’t be surprised if they do so by 2-3 TDs.
North Carolina -1.5 vs. Notre Dame:
Mack Brown’s team has had two weeks to prepare for the Fighting Irish, who were fortunate to win a 24-17 decision over California last week. Marcus Freeman’s squad was trailing 7-0 when it missed a field goal in the first half. A completely bogus offsides call on the Golden Bears – one that replays showed to clearly be egregious – gave Notre Dame new life and led to a TD two plays later.
The week of rest did wonders for UNC WR Josh Downs, a third-team All-American selection in 2021 when he had 101 receptions for 1,335 yards and eight TDs. Downs is set to return after missing back-to-back games injured. He had two TD catches in a Week Zero victory over Florida A&M.
Even without Downs in the last two games, redshirt freshman QB Drake Maye has thrived. In his first three career starts, he has connected on 74.5 percent of his throws for 930 yards with a stellar 11/1 TD-INT ratio. Maye is also making plays with his legs, rushing for 146 yards and one TD with a 5.6 YPC average.
UNC is ranked No. 5 nationally in total offense, No. 6 in scoring (51.3 points per game), No. 13 in rushing yards and No. 21 in passing yards. True freshman RB Omario Hampton has run for a team-high 228 yards and five TDs with a 6.0 YPC average.
The Tar Heels have issues defensively, but so does Notre Dame on the offensive side of the ball. The Fighting Irish is ranked No. 113 in the country (out of 131 FBS teams) in total offense, No. 107 in passing yards, No. 103 in rushing yards and No. 116 in scoring (18.3 PPG).
Clemson -7 at Wake Forest:
Clemson has won 13 games in a row over Wake Forest, including 12 wins by margins of 14 points or more. The Tigers have 10 victories over the Demon Deacons by at least 20 points during their 13-game winning streak.
Wake Forest couldn’t run the ball in last week’s 37-36 home win over Liberty. The Flames limited Dave Clawson’s team to 21 rushing yards on 26 attempts.
Clemson is a still a work in progress offensively, but it’s facing a soft Wake Forest defense. D.J Uiagalelei has played better, throwing for 662 yards with a 5/1 TD-INT ratio. He also has 117 rushing yards, one TD and a 4.3 YPC average.
RB Will Shipley has 249 rushing yards, six TDs and a 7.8 YPC average through three games. Look for Shipley to be the catalyst as Clemson covers this single-digit number.
Florida +10.5 at Tennessee:
Florida owns a 16-1 record in the last 17 head-to-head meetings with Tennessee, including 11 wins by double-digit margins. The Gators have won five in a row over the Volunteers by an average margin of 20.0 PPG.
My sources in Tennessee tell me that Vols’ star WR Cedric Tillman is going to miss this game with a high-ankle sprain. Tillman garnered second-team All-SEC honors in 2021 when he had 64 receptions for 1,081 yards and 12 TDs. He already has 17 catches for 246 yards and one TD this season.
Over the summer, most books had Josh Heupel’s team favored in the 4 to 5.5 range in their Games of the Year. It says here that if Pittsburgh QB Kedon Slovis didn’t miss the second half of its 34-27 overtime loss to Tennessee two weeks ago, the Panthers would’ve won that game. If that were the case, UT would simply have home wins over Ball St. and Akron, two of the worst teams in the country, and the narrative around this matchup would be completely different.
Florida is going to be without LB Ventrell Miller (ankle) and its run defense looked awful without him last week. And yes, QB Anthony Richardson has had consecutive bad performances. However, I think Richardson gets back to making plays with his legs in Knoxville.
In a rivalry dominated by Florida for most of the last three decades, there’s no way I’m turning down the Gators as double-digit underdogs.
Vanderbilt at Alabama ‘OVER’ 34 in the first half:
I’m confident Alabama is going to score 35 on its own by halftime. I prefer going the first-half route here because Nick Saban is prone to hitting the brakes offensively when a game gets out of hand. At least in the first 30 minutes of play, we know Alabama’s starters on offense will be in the game.
For a smaller amount, I’m also on ‘OVER’ 58.5 for the game. The ‘over’ is 4-0 for Vandy with combined scores of 73, 73, 70 and 66 points. True freshman QB AJ Swann threw for 255 yards and four TDs without an interception in his first start last week. Swann has six TD passes without being intercepted this year.
Charlotte at South Carolina ‘OVER’ 34.5 in the first half: With star QB Chris Reynolds returning from an injury (that kept him out for two games) to throw for 401 yards and five TDs in a 42-41 win at Georgia St., Charlotte can now put up a lot of points. The 49ers are wretched on defense, ranked dead last nationally in total defense. They’re ranked No. 128 in pass defense, No. 129 at defending the run and No. 129 in scoring ‘D’ (45.3 PPG).
Even though South Carolina’s offense was shut down by top-ranked Georgia last week, this unit still has plenty of playmakers in QB Spencer Rattler, WR Antwane ‘Juice’ Wells, RB Marshawn Lloyd and TE Austin Stogner. That group should feast on a Charlotte defense that offers little resistance.
