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(non-GT) Week 6 of the NFL season

Last week's ATS plays went 1-4. OUCH! Damn Chargers! This moves me to an embarrassing 10-15 on the season. :oops: Hoping to get it started back on the right track this evening with the first of five favorites this week...

Atlanta -3.5 over New Orleans, Thursday 8:30 CBS
*MY* Redskins are pretty good on defense and the Atlanta WR's didn't look all to snuff this past weekend in the Ga Dome. I don't think Matt Bryant will miss 2 makeable FG's again either. The Saints OTOH field the worst defense in the NFL. The Falcons should have a lot of fun tonight. And, a side statistical note...the 4 games played so far on Thursday nights with road teams on short rest have seen the visitors win 3 times. Lay the points.

Arizona -3 over Pittsburgh, 1:00 FOX
The Cards boast a top 5 offense and defense. Vick and crew will be hard pressed to score enough to keep up coming off a late night win on Monday night on the west coast. This Cards D is a helluva lot better than what the Steelers faced in San Diego earlier this week.

Denver -4 over Cleveland, 1:00 CBS
The Brownies have only played 1 quality defense (Jets) all season and they lost by 21. The Broncs feature a top 3 defense. While Manning and the offense are painful to watch at times, their D should carry them...again.

Green Bay -10 over San Diego, 4:25 CBS
The Bolts D is terrible and the Pack are at home. Consider playing the over 51 in this game as well. Rodgers' streak of not throwing a pick at home came to end and then it happened again against the Rams this past Sunday. Time to start another streak. Packers D is pretty darn good, btw. They are of course always overshadowed by Rodgers and his dynamic offense.

New England -7.5 over Indianapolis, 8:30 NBC
Like the Cards, the Pats field a top 5 offense and defense. Indy has won 3 games over their pitiful division foes...and they barely won each one. The Ponies are actually -14 on cumulative point margin for the season. Their 2 games against AFC East foes? Completely dominated by the Bills and Jets. More of the same on the way by the Pats motivated machine on national TV.

GLA!
 
The game tonight is worthy of a 1/2 to 1 unit play on the over 51.5 in the Superdome as well, IMO. I just can't see the Saints slowing down the Falcons much at all. And then, Brees may throw it 50 times in a potential (likely?) shootout. And, by "throwing it 50 times" doesn't guarantee points all the time for the Saints as the Falcons D may get a gift or two or three coming there way from Brees as well.
 
Hello Falcons. Pleased to meet you. Let me introduce myself. My name is The Kiss Of Death.

Sheesh. (eyes rolling)
 
Hello Falcons. Pleased to meet you. Let me introduce myself. My name is The Kiss Of Death.

Sheesh. (eyes rolling)
I knew going to New Orleans on short notice was a bad thing. The road team doesn't have a good record at all on the Thursday night games. The NFL should make them go away.
 
This year, the road team on Thursday nights are 3-3 now. The first game, a loss by the Steelers at Patriots really isn't much of a disadvantage because it isn't a typical short week due to the starts having been rested over the previous 10+ days skipping the final preseason game and all.
 
An additional play you might want to consider...

...take the Jets and lay the 7 pts. Why? The Skins' All-Pro left tackle, Trent Williams, has been ruled out due to injury. The Jets' D is already good as-is and they get back one of their best defenders coming off league mandated suspension. The Skins have no answer as a backup for Williams. DeSean Jackson has already been ruled out (again!) and same for TE Jordan Reed. Backup RB Matt Jones is a gametime decision as well.

The Skins play good D, but the Fighting Chan Gaileys have had an off week to prep and get ready. This likely will be very ugly. Tempted to play the under 40.5 as well, but I can see the Jets D scoring and/or setting up their O on several short fields for points.
 
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