So given my injuries today, I decided to break this up into two parts. Tomorrow I'll post the football side of things since I didn't have time to finish that before I left Atlanta, but the first part I did. As always keep the WAR ROOM stuff on this board and off twitter, private messages, texts, Facebook, etc because you are basically stealing from our kids when you do that...
ON LEAGUE MOVEMENT AND THE ACC
As I’ve said a million times before everyone is tied to the GOR and there isn’t a legal way out of it anyone can figure out. Clemson and FSU have definitely had people study it like biblical scholars study the bible and the entire writing of it was designed to prevent this from happening.
The ACC is currently in fourth place behind the Big 12, SEC and Big Ten in payout dollars The Big 12 deal is expected to be around $50 million per year starting in 2025 and the ACC should outpace that by then, I think people don’t realize how high the ACC current payouts are at nearly $40 million now. The Big 12 was at 42.6 this year, but it will actually drop for 2023 because of the new schools coming in for a year. The goal of the Big 12 is to be at $50 million in 2025 and the ACC should be there as well once the RSN network deal ends and those rights are gobbled up by ESPN.
Will Clemson and FSU stay by 2030 the first possible time to move? Who knows. What will UNC do has the largest national brand that draws interest from the Big Ten and SEC? Again who knows. They’ve been the Texas of the ACC, with a lot of input, but Texas will try to swallow their pride in the SEC now, I think that might also be an interesting litmus test for the Heels.
There are two scenarios that I envision for how this plays out. One is you see a status quo largely driven by drying up TV revenue dollars in the future as traditional broadcast media continues to bleed AD dollars and subscribers and the squeeze hits the Mouse and the Murdochs and others. That is already happening if you follow the business side of this which I do. Several ACC people I trust are of this mindset as well. The math just doesn’t work long-term.
So the math not working could also help drive scenario two which is the idea of having basically a mega league with the top 40 or whatever teams only and then leagues like the ACC, Big 12 and Pac 12 become level 2 and then the G5 are level 3. In that scenario teams like Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Maryland, and any non-major brand is screwed and will be moved down. It is the European soccer model and you could still have access to a playoff spot or move up or something but there will be a lot of teams left out and it will kill what makes the sport great, regionalism.
No one really knows what will happen though and the idea of basically minor league football is not going to excite the masses even if it is tangentially school related. I just see that killing off interest for those schools.
GT won’t be invited to that party if they go super league and it take a lot to get positioned to be invited in the near future, but I also think GT would be out even if they had gone to the Big Ten when Maryland did. TV markets don’t matter like they used to so that has sapped a lot of the drive of interest in GT.
Anyway, it is status quo for now.
ON LEAGUE MOVEMENT AND THE ACC
As I’ve said a million times before everyone is tied to the GOR and there isn’t a legal way out of it anyone can figure out. Clemson and FSU have definitely had people study it like biblical scholars study the bible and the entire writing of it was designed to prevent this from happening.
The ACC is currently in fourth place behind the Big 12, SEC and Big Ten in payout dollars The Big 12 deal is expected to be around $50 million per year starting in 2025 and the ACC should outpace that by then, I think people don’t realize how high the ACC current payouts are at nearly $40 million now. The Big 12 was at 42.6 this year, but it will actually drop for 2023 because of the new schools coming in for a year. The goal of the Big 12 is to be at $50 million in 2025 and the ACC should be there as well once the RSN network deal ends and those rights are gobbled up by ESPN.
Will Clemson and FSU stay by 2030 the first possible time to move? Who knows. What will UNC do has the largest national brand that draws interest from the Big Ten and SEC? Again who knows. They’ve been the Texas of the ACC, with a lot of input, but Texas will try to swallow their pride in the SEC now, I think that might also be an interesting litmus test for the Heels.
There are two scenarios that I envision for how this plays out. One is you see a status quo largely driven by drying up TV revenue dollars in the future as traditional broadcast media continues to bleed AD dollars and subscribers and the squeeze hits the Mouse and the Murdochs and others. That is already happening if you follow the business side of this which I do. Several ACC people I trust are of this mindset as well. The math just doesn’t work long-term.
So the math not working could also help drive scenario two which is the idea of having basically a mega league with the top 40 or whatever teams only and then leagues like the ACC, Big 12 and Pac 12 become level 2 and then the G5 are level 3. In that scenario teams like Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Maryland, and any non-major brand is screwed and will be moved down. It is the European soccer model and you could still have access to a playoff spot or move up or something but there will be a lot of teams left out and it will kill what makes the sport great, regionalism.
No one really knows what will happen though and the idea of basically minor league football is not going to excite the masses even if it is tangentially school related. I just see that killing off interest for those schools.
GT won’t be invited to that party if they go super league and it take a lot to get positioned to be invited in the near future, but I also think GT would be out even if they had gone to the Big Ten when Maryland did. TV markets don’t matter like they used to so that has sapped a lot of the drive of interest in GT.
Anyway, it is status quo for now.
