So I keep getting asked the same question over and over on social media, on here to some extent, what is going to happen with GT?
The short answer is no one knows yet. Here are some tidbits I've gathered and some thoughts on the overall situation.
From talking to sources connected to various schools, conferences and even some media connections, the ball is in Notre Dame's court with regard to the Big Ten. Do they want to give up independence to jump in with the Big Ten, the ACC or stay on their own? Everyone I've talked to expects ND to do nothing in the short term and that has been where I have been from day one when this first started up as a topic. ND as long as they have a seat at the table for the playoffs will try to hold on to their independence. The fan base likes it, but it is not a dealbreaker at this point to join a conference so they can make that decision on their own timeline. The Big Ten will likely carve out something in their TV deal like the ACC already has to factor in Notre Dame jumping in.
So what are the Big Ten schools looking for with a new addition?
It is about national brands USC is a national brand, UCLA is still one even with the struggles in football.
There is only one ACC school that is a national brand in that same type of way and that is North Carolina with Clemson probably being the other, but Clemson does not fit the profile. I would not be shocked to see the Big Ten make a play for UNC and there are rumblings that some contact has been made on that end. I don't have any further details, but the Grant of Rights issue remains a big obstacle for everyone involved in trying to poach an ACC school and is why Clemson isn't in the SEC in my opinion right now.
If UNC bolts I think the Big Ten tries to take one more ACC school at least and that is where Virginia and Georgia Tech come into play as the most viable markets and then Miami. It comes down for the Big Ten to what moves the needle enough to cover your cost of joining the pool. USC and UCLA can generate enough for the TV partners to be happy. Adding more Virginia markets or a huge Atlanta market for the Big Ten is something that is interesting, same thing for Miami who has been pretty quiet through all of this so far. That is why Oregon and Washington got left in the cold by the Big Ten, they would not cover their value if the league added them and the same for Stanford or any other Pac-12 school.
I think the SEC won't do anything unless there is a value add like Clemson is free of a Grant of Rights issue. As I stated in another thread FSU doesn't sound like a take right now for the SEC. The SEC remains the one conference focused on the rivalry aspect of expansion and I think there is some buyers remorse over taking Missouri for example so they will be very strategic in who they take. The Big Ten has actually moved more toward the super conference thing than even the SEC by tossing out geography for money by adding schools thousands of miles apart and having schools on both coasts now.
I believe GT would like to remain in a viable ACC and so would everyone else in the league, but that may lead to some tough decisions. Our UNC site mentioned the pruning of some programs from the ACC being a possibility and that is something greatly feared by the lower-tier football teams in the SEC. I mentioned this in another update but I had staff at some of those schools hitting me up for info wondering what I am hearing because they are paranoid at their school they will be kicked out of the party. The ACC equivalent of Vanderbilt or Missouri would be BC and Wake Forest. The lack of fans is the major issue there. BC gives you that TV market, but I'd be really curious to see what the CFB ratings are like in the Boston TV market or New England or the same for college basketball. Wake is covered by every other Carolina school and they are a tiny outlier who punches above their weight due to great fundraising and being a private school.
If the GOR ends up being the dealbreaker and all the ACC schools are stuck I do think the ACC/Pac-12 merger/super conference makes a lot of sense to create a more dynamic TV pot. I know there was talk of a Big XII/Pac-12 hybrid but that really doesn't move the needle enough to me. What does the Big XII have now? I'd argue that Cincy and UCF are more valuable than many of their current programs nationally other than Kansas hoops. No one is lining up to watch K-State/Baylor or Texas Tech/Iowa State in football. People would have interest in Clemson/Oregon or a GT nerd bowl with Stanford or Cal or at least I think that is an easier sell. I think there is a path forward with the ACC for GT if needed and there will be other options.
I'm sure there are people who have blogged endlessly and laid out the scenarios and I would love to do that but I'm supposed to be on VACATION right now and I'm typing this up while I listen to the waves of the gulf and the occasional moron with his fake "Fast and Furious" car or super Truck.
GT has value, would that value change if they were in the mode that they were under GOL/Chan/PJ in terms of winning, I don't think so because the branding and the fanbase size are what matters.
Also, GT isn't going to the SEC, Ekreb needs to chill posting that from his various handles or I'll just start banishing them again.
I also wish they would blow this whole thing up and start over with my plan to have hyper-regional conferences that are capped to 12 or fewer members.
