Each week of the football season, professional guest picker Brian Edwards will join us to give his analysis and picks on a few games he likes each week…enjoy and good luck!!!
Overall – 10-6-3 * There have been some folks asking for history to confirm records…..I’ve included all past picks for this year below….onto week 5!!!!
Week 5
Kentucky +7 at Ole Miss: Since losing back-to-back games to Alabama and Florida in 2020, Kentucky has won 16 of its last 19 games. The UK ground attack is set to get a lift with the season debut of Chris Rodriguez, who has missed the first four games due to a suspension. Rodriguez was a second-team All-SEC selection last year when he ran for 1,379 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
I made Ole Miss a 3.5-point favorite in this spot. The Wildcats will have some revenge motivation. In the last meeting between these schools in Lexington in 2020, Lane Kiffin picked up his first win as the Rebels’ head coach in a 42-41 overtime victory. I think UK has the quarterback advantage with Will Levis, who has completed 67.5 percent of his passes for 1,185 yards with a 10/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio through four games. He also has three rushing TDs.
Arkansas +17.5 vs. Alabama: Arkansas has been a home underdog six times during Sam Pittman’s tenure, compiling a 4-2 spread record with three outright wins. All three of those victories came by double-digit margins, including a 40-21 win over Texas last year.
I didn’t downgrade the Razorbacks at all after last week’s 23-21 loss to Texas A&M. They completely outplayed the Aggies, enjoying a 24-16 advantage in first downs and a 415-343 advantage in total yards. However, the game completely turned on a KJ Jefferson fumble at the goal line that went back the other way 97 yards for a TD.
Remember, Arkansas gave ‘Bama all it wanted in Tuscaloosa last season, easily covering the number as a 20.5-point underdog in a 42-35 loss. We saw the Crimson Tide struggle in a 20-19 win at Texas in Week 2, and it says here that Nick Saban’s bunch is in for another 60-minute battle in Fayetteville.
Baylor -2 vs. Oklahoma St.: Baylor has won nine home games in a row, including six victories by double-digit margins. Regardless of the venue, the Bears have prevailed in 15 of their last 18 games, including last week’s 31-24 win at Iowa St. as short underdogs.
I made Dave Aranda’s team a 3.5-point favorite in this spot. QB Blake Shapen has completed 69.0 percent of his passes for 773 yards with a 7/1 TD-INT ratio. He now has a 12/1 career TD-INT ratio.
California +4 at Washington St.: California is an incredible 14-1 against the spread in its last 15 games as a road underdog. The Golden Bears bounced back from their controversial 24-17 loss at Notre Dame to pound Arizona 49-31 last week.
True freshman RB Jaydn Ott ran for 274 yards and three TDs on merely 19 attempts. QB Jack Plummer connected on 18-of-28 throws for 245 yards and three TDs without an interception.
Cal’s 20-14 non-covering win over UNLV isn’t looking nearly as bad it did a few weeks ago, as the Rebels are now 3-1 on the season. If not for that bogus offsides call in South Bend, I believe Justin Wilcox’s team would be rolling into Pullman with an unbeaten record.
Indiana at Nebraska ‘OVER’ 60: The ‘over’ has hit in three straight games for Indiana with its last two combined scores coming to 69 and 63 points. Nebraska’s defense is ranked No. 128 nationally in total defense out of 131 FBS teams. The Cornhuskers are ranked No. 127 against the run, No. 115 at defending the pass and No. 114 in scoring ‘D’ (35.5 points per game).
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Iowa, an 11-point home underdog Saturday vs. Michigan, has only been a double-digit home underdog four times in the past decade. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS with two outright wins in those instances.
--Here are the teams that have unblemished 4-0 ATS records: Southern Miss, South Alabama, Arkansas St., Minnesota, UNLV, Kansas, Oregon St. and Washington. TCU and James Madison are 3-0 ATS.
--The following schools have limped to 0-4 ATS marks: Utah St., Georgia St., Boston College, Colorado St., Colorado, Auburn and Nebraska. Boise St. is 0-3-1 versus the number, while Stanford, Fresno St. and Florida International are 0-3 ATS.
--The ‘over’ has cashed at a 4-0 clip for Rice, UTSA, Washington, No. Illinois, Memphis, Houston, Ohio and Bowling Green. The ‘over’ is 3-0 for Army and 3-0-1 for Cincinnati. Finally, Charlotte and Vandy have watched the ‘over’ go 4-1.
--The ‘under’ is 5-0 for UTEP. The following programs have seen the ‘under’ hit at a 4-0 rate: Colorado St., Virginia, Ga. Tech, Texas A&M, Va. Tech, Arizona St. and Utah St. The ‘under’ is 3-0 for UAB and San Jose St., 3-0-1 for Georgia.
--Whether you tail or fade, best of luck with your wagers and enjoy the Week 5 action.
- By Brian Edwards
- @vegasbedwards on Twitter (linkage: https://twitter.com/vegasbedwards)
- MajorWager.com Managing Editor (linkage: https://www.majorwager.com/)
- VegasInsider.com Senior Handicapper (linkage: https://www.vegasinsider.com/handicappers/brian-edwards/)
- Owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com (linkage: http://brianedwardssports.com/) Host of the BetCFB Podcast (linkage: https://www.vegasinsider.com/shows/bet-cfb/)
Overall – 10-6-3 * There have been some folks asking for history to confirm records…..I’ve included all past picks for this year below….onto week 5!!!!
Week 5
Kentucky +7 at Ole Miss: Since losing back-to-back games to Alabama and Florida in 2020, Kentucky has won 16 of its last 19 games. The UK ground attack is set to get a lift with the season debut of Chris Rodriguez, who has missed the first four games due to a suspension. Rodriguez was a second-team All-SEC selection last year when he ran for 1,379 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
I made Ole Miss a 3.5-point favorite in this spot. The Wildcats will have some revenge motivation. In the last meeting between these schools in Lexington in 2020, Lane Kiffin picked up his first win as the Rebels’ head coach in a 42-41 overtime victory. I think UK has the quarterback advantage with Will Levis, who has completed 67.5 percent of his passes for 1,185 yards with a 10/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio through four games. He also has three rushing TDs.
Arkansas +17.5 vs. Alabama: Arkansas has been a home underdog six times during Sam Pittman’s tenure, compiling a 4-2 spread record with three outright wins. All three of those victories came by double-digit margins, including a 40-21 win over Texas last year.
I didn’t downgrade the Razorbacks at all after last week’s 23-21 loss to Texas A&M. They completely outplayed the Aggies, enjoying a 24-16 advantage in first downs and a 415-343 advantage in total yards. However, the game completely turned on a KJ Jefferson fumble at the goal line that went back the other way 97 yards for a TD.
Remember, Arkansas gave ‘Bama all it wanted in Tuscaloosa last season, easily covering the number as a 20.5-point underdog in a 42-35 loss. We saw the Crimson Tide struggle in a 20-19 win at Texas in Week 2, and it says here that Nick Saban’s bunch is in for another 60-minute battle in Fayetteville.
Baylor -2 vs. Oklahoma St.: Baylor has won nine home games in a row, including six victories by double-digit margins. Regardless of the venue, the Bears have prevailed in 15 of their last 18 games, including last week’s 31-24 win at Iowa St. as short underdogs.
I made Dave Aranda’s team a 3.5-point favorite in this spot. QB Blake Shapen has completed 69.0 percent of his passes for 773 yards with a 7/1 TD-INT ratio. He now has a 12/1 career TD-INT ratio.
California +4 at Washington St.: California is an incredible 14-1 against the spread in its last 15 games as a road underdog. The Golden Bears bounced back from their controversial 24-17 loss at Notre Dame to pound Arizona 49-31 last week.
True freshman RB Jaydn Ott ran for 274 yards and three TDs on merely 19 attempts. QB Jack Plummer connected on 18-of-28 throws for 245 yards and three TDs without an interception.
Cal’s 20-14 non-covering win over UNLV isn’t looking nearly as bad it did a few weeks ago, as the Rebels are now 3-1 on the season. If not for that bogus offsides call in South Bend, I believe Justin Wilcox’s team would be rolling into Pullman with an unbeaten record.
Indiana at Nebraska ‘OVER’ 60: The ‘over’ has hit in three straight games for Indiana with its last two combined scores coming to 69 and 63 points. Nebraska’s defense is ranked No. 128 nationally in total defense out of 131 FBS teams. The Cornhuskers are ranked No. 127 against the run, No. 115 at defending the pass and No. 114 in scoring ‘D’ (35.5 points per game).
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Iowa, an 11-point home underdog Saturday vs. Michigan, has only been a double-digit home underdog four times in the past decade. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS with two outright wins in those instances.
--Here are the teams that have unblemished 4-0 ATS records: Southern Miss, South Alabama, Arkansas St., Minnesota, UNLV, Kansas, Oregon St. and Washington. TCU and James Madison are 3-0 ATS.
--The following schools have limped to 0-4 ATS marks: Utah St., Georgia St., Boston College, Colorado St., Colorado, Auburn and Nebraska. Boise St. is 0-3-1 versus the number, while Stanford, Fresno St. and Florida International are 0-3 ATS.
--The ‘over’ has cashed at a 4-0 clip for Rice, UTSA, Washington, No. Illinois, Memphis, Houston, Ohio and Bowling Green. The ‘over’ is 3-0 for Army and 3-0-1 for Cincinnati. Finally, Charlotte and Vandy have watched the ‘over’ go 4-1.
--The ‘under’ is 5-0 for UTEP. The following programs have seen the ‘under’ hit at a 4-0 rate: Colorado St., Virginia, Ga. Tech, Texas A&M, Va. Tech, Arizona St. and Utah St. The ‘under’ is 3-0 for UAB and San Jose St., 3-0-1 for Georgia.
--Whether you tail or fade, best of luck with your wagers and enjoy the Week 5 action.
**** PAST PICK HISTORY *****
Week 1 - 2-1- W - Arkansas -6 vs. Cincinnati:
- L - NC St. -11 at East Carolina:
- W- LSU -3 vs. FSU:
- PUSH - Pittsburgh +7 vs. Tennessee
- W- Appalachian St. +19 at Texas A&M:
- L- Alabama -11.5 in the first half at Texas:
- W - Wake Forest -13 at Vanderbilt:
- W- Maryland Team Total ‘over’ 24.5 points in the first half at Charlotte:
- Charlotte @ Ga State
- W - Pick #1: Ga. St. Team Total ‘OVER’ 20.5 points in the first half.
- W - Pick #2: Ga. St. Team Total ‘OVER’ 40.5 points.
- Georgia @ South Carolina
- L - Pick #3: South Carolina +24.5
- California @ Notre Dame
- W - Pick #4: California
- W - Pick #5: Vandy at No. Illinois ‘OVER’ 58 points.
- PUSH- Arkansas +2 vs. Texas A&M (in Arlington, TX.):
- L- North Carolina -1.5 vs. Notre Dame:
- L -Clemson -7 at Wake Forest:
- W- Florida +10.5 at Tennessee:
- PUSH- Vanderbilt at Alabama ‘OVER’ 34 in the first half:
- L - For a smaller amount, I’m also on ‘OVER’ 58.5 for the game
- L - Charlotte at South Carolina ‘OVER’ 34.5 in the first half:
