Potentially Perfect Picks of the Week via MyPerfectFranchise.Net
Each week of the football season, professional guest picker Brian Edwards will join us to give his analysis and picks on a few games he likes each week…enjoy and good luck!!!
- By Brian Edwards
- @vegasbedwards on Twitter (linkage: https://twitter.com/vegasbedwards)
- MajorWager.com Managing Editor (linkage: https://www.majorwager.com/)
- VegasInsider.com Senior Handicapper (linkage: https://www.vegasinsider.com/handicappers/brian-edwards/)
- Owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com (linkage: http://brianedwardssports.com/) Host of the BetCFB Podcast (linkage: https://www.vegasinsider.com/shows/bet-cfb/)
Overall – 11-10-3 *
WEEK 6 PICKS
NC St. -3 vs FSU
North Carolina State (4-1 straight up, 2-3 against the spread) has had its way with Florida State in the last five seasons, producing a 4-1 record both SU and ATS. The Wolfpack’s three most recent wins over the Seminoles have come by margins of 14, 16 and 19 points.
Dave Doeren’s team won a 28-14 decision in Tallahassee last year as a three-point road favorite. Star quarterback Devin Leary threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns.
In the last meeting in Raleigh, NC St. captured a 38-22 win as an 11-point home ‘chalk.’ Going back further, the Wolfpack has compiled an 8-2 ATS record in the last 10 head-to-head meetings and has gone 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 games against FSU in Raleigh.
NC St. is ranked No. 14 nationally in total defense, No. 15 against the run, No. 27 at defending the pass and No. 19 in scoring ‘D’ (15.4 points per game). The Wolfpack brings a 13-game home winning streak into this matchup.
On the flip side, FSU has lost outright in seven of 10 true road assignments since Mike Norvell took over as head coach. The ‘Noles will be without WR Ja’Khi Douglas and three other key players are listed as ‘questionable:’ LB Amari Gainer, DT Fabien Lovett and OT Robert Scott.
Let’s go NC State -3 in this one
Alabama -14 in 1st half over Texas A&M
Alabama (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) will be seeking revenge for last year’s 41-38 loss at Texas A&M when the Aggies arrive at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday night. It says here that the Crimson Tide are going to avenge that defeat early and often in Tuscaloosa.
I’m not against laying the 24-point spread for the game, but I prefer to attack this contest with Alabama -14 in the first half. It doesn’t matter to me if star QB Bryce Young plays or not, either. I saw enough out of backup QB Jalen Milroe in Alabama’s 49-26 win at Arkansas to feel comfortable with the redshirt freshman.
After the Razorbacks had scored 23 unanswered points to trim ‘Bama’s lead to 28-23, Milroe ripped off a 72-yard run to set up a TD that put the Tide in front by two possessions to stay.
I was bullish on this play before the news broke on Thursday that Texas A&M QB Max Johnson was out indefinitely with a broken bone in his left throwing hand. That means that Haynes King will get the starting nod. In three games this season, King has thrown for 510 yards with a ¾ touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has a 6/8 TD-INT ratio for his career.
Jimbo Fisher’s team is at the end of a brutal five-game stretch. Although the Aggies are 2-2 in those games, they were completely outplayed by both Arkansas and Miami (in terms of total yards, first downs and time of possession) in narrow victories.
James Madison -11 vs Arkansas St.
For our third pick, let’s go with James Madison (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) as an 11-point road favorite at Arkansas St. The Dukes are ranked No. 1 in the country in both total defense and run defense. They’re ranked No. 15 versus the pass and ninth in scoring ‘D’ (13.8 PPG).
JMU is also prolific on offense with its 44.8 PPG average. QB Todd Centeio has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 913 yards with an 11/1 TD-INT ratio. He also has a team-best 252 rushing yards and two TDs with a 5.6 yards-per-carry average.
Florida -11 vs. Missouri
The Tigers are in a brutal spot after a pair of crushing defeats.
Missouri should be 2-0 in SEC play and in the driver’s seat in the SEC with essentially a two-game lead over Georgia in the standings. Instead, Eli Drinkwitz’s club woke up Sunday morning with a 2-3 overall record and a 0-2 mark in SEC action.
Let’s give Drinkwitz credit for having his team ready to play against Georgia last week after what happened on The Plains in Week 4. Despite losing 17-14 at Auburn in overtime when the Tigers blew committed a handful of unfathomable mistakes at crunch time, they jumped on UGA early, led nearly the entire game and had a double-digit advantage for large chunks of the 26-22 home loss.
But Missouri’s offense was ineffective in the fourth quarter after losing star WR Dominic Lovett, who leads the SEC in catches (27) and receiving yards (460). Lovett is ‘questionable’ at UF due to a leg injury but even if he plays, it’s unlikely he’ll be close to 100 percent.
Florida QB Anthony Richardson has his confidence back and that’s bad news for the rest of UF’s opponents. After a spectacular performance to lead the Gators to a season-opening home win over Utah, Richardson was awful in a home loss to Kentucky and a non-covering win over South Florida.
However, Richardson put on a show in a 38-33 loss at Tennessee two weeks ago. He threw for 453 yards and two TDs and ran for 62 yards and two TDs. In last week’s 52-17 home win over Eastern Washington, Richardson threw for 240 yards and two TDs. He gained 45 yards on his lone rushing attempt.
Ole Miss -17 at Vanderbilt
Even if the Rebels come out flat, they should be able to recover and win this game by at least three TDs.
Lane Kiffin’s squad blasted Ga. Tech 42-0 in Atlanta in its only road game of the year to date, easily covering the number as a 17-point road favorite. We expect a similar performance in Nashville.
Bonus NFL Play: Detroit at New England ‘OVER’ 46 points: The ‘over’ is 4-0 for Detroit with its combined scores coming to 93, 52, 63 and 73 points. The Lions are leading the NFL in both total offense and scoring with its 35.0 PPG average.
On the other side of the ball, they’re ranked dead last in the NFL in both total defense and scoring ‘D’ (35.3 PPG).
New England has seen back-to-back ‘overs’ with combined scores of 51 and 63 points. Even if Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer, who were both listed as ‘questionable’ as of Thursday afternoon, aren’t upgraded, I liked what I saw out of rookie QB Bailey Zappe in last week’s 27-24 overtime loss at Green Bay.
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