Position by position look at the BasketJackets

[GTJT622]

I'll try to take a look at each position with a thread once a day over the next week.

Point Guard

Last year, Heath & Jorgenson combined to average scoring 8 ppg and dish out near 6 assists per game. This does not include the contributions of 12 minutes per game from Truck Heyward. Assists are of course very dependent on someone scoring once receiving the pass, but this year I think the PG's should (and the key word is "should") have some better options at the receipt of their dishes - particularly Adam Smith and hopefully improved Jackson and finishing by bigs.

If a 20% improvement in numbers by those 2 lead guys listed above at this position were to take place, we get about 10 ppg and over 7 assists (14+ pts) per game out of this position. Not great, but not terrible either. And, I think that's the way folks would view this position even without any metrics. Managers of the game. No superstars to take over games, but guys who are capable of playing well and leading at the ACC level.

Adam Smith could of course play some at this position and likely will late in games as I think CBG will want the ball in his hands from the get-go of most every possession...much of that however perhaps depends on the development/improvement in Tadric Jackson in Year 2. I think CBG would love to have the option of having 3 attacking scorers in Smith + Jackson + MGH on the court at the same time. If CBG can't trust Jackson's shot selection and/or he doesn't improve his scoring from a disappointing freshman campaign, then Smith will likely be at the 2-guard at crunch time with Heath/Jorgenson at the point (and that means you have one less significant threat to score when needed late in tight games).

Having said all that, I think this is a position just ripe for the taking. I believe CBG will start out deploying a PG by committee plan and I don't think we'll ever see one guy playing 30+ minutes. Certainly though, if Heath or Jorgenson comes out of the gates on top of their games and showing considerable improvement over last year, then CBG may want to stray from a closer to 50-50 time share and move more towards one guy consistently getting closer to 25-27 minutes per game. An example of what may trigger something like that would be improved outside shooting from Jorgenson in particular. In other words, becoming that 3rd perimeter threat to take pressure off of Smith/Jackson and MGH/Stephens.

Worst case scenario - other than injury heaven forbid - is none of these guys improve and Smith moves over full-time as PG. While that is nice to have as a 1-year option with Smith on roster, it is a terrible scenario and one that I think won't happen and CBG will not do anyway - less of course, games in last 4 minutes at crunch time in tight games (that we play a ton of) as mentioned earlier. Then again, if Jackson improves significantly and Smith is what I think many of us think he can be, CBG may want to have those 2 guys together on the court more than at just crunch time. We shall see.

Heath was better from the field last year with a 41.2% FG% to Jorgenson's mediocre 31.1% Travis just didn't look right with his approach and release last year when shooting. I fear he developed some bad habits/technique during his time off rehabbing his knee. Hopefully, that is straightened out some now. They both can and do run the floor well. It's great to read CBG touting that Travis' knee is back to pre-injury health and he is moving fast like we saw as a true frosh in those few games.

Defensively, I think - like most of the team - these guys are solid. I doubt CBG will play guys if they don't put for the effort on the defensive end of the court and I've never viewed any of these guys as liabilities. Having said that, they combined for 24 steals last year (and Jorgenson had 20 of them). CBG's defensive scheme doesn't really drive for taking a lot of chances on the perimeter and going for steals as a general rule anyway though.

Bottom line: If CBG really has the message from Bobinski that "offense isn't just something to do between defensive possessions" and we are to believe the rhetoric from the players that we are going to "score, score, score" then we should see ample opportunity for this position to get significantly better and I think we have the guys who can do it. I have to keep reminding myself that Jorgenson, in particular, is just a sophomore and both Heath and he have only 1 run through an ACC schedule under their belts.

 

[GTJT622]

Shooting/2 Guard

To me, how this position unfolds is highly dependent on the development in Year 2 of Tadric Jackson. More on that in a moment.

For full disclosure, I believe that star ratings for football is loaded with baloney. There are just far too many players, the schemes and levels of play contain far too much variability, the stars don't play against one another for good comparisons at all or not often, and the analysts see the snippets of best film supplied to them. Basketball ratings are not direct "correlators" either and there are misses on their rankings for the same reasons as you see in football, but I do believe basketball star rankings are much more meaningful than football by a landslide.

The recruitable players on the AAU and showcase tournament circuits are evaluated against one another in hoops from across the nation and they've been going against one another since elementary school in many cases. Some of these guys have played 150+ games in a calendar year against often top flight competition. There are fewer guys on the court. There is far less reliance on film of best plays only. Etc.

This leads me back to Tadric. Right or wrong, I view a 5* hoopster as an immediate starter and significant contributors as a true freshman. I view a 4* as a guy/gal who should be in that role by their sophomore season. I view a 3* (Quinton Stephens this year or Ben Lammers next year) as a guy who should be a big contributor by his/her junior year. I view an unranked or 2* guy/gal (AD Gueye) as a role player likely at best, but who could of course develop with increased size, technique, etc. Tadric was a 4* by most services coming out of HS. It's his time to shine.

Last year, his shot selection was mind boggling. It has been well chronicled now the issues he was dealing with as a true freshman with family illness and all, which he states is in a better frame of mind now heading into his soph campaign. He was never known as a perimeter gunner in HS. He was known as a slasher and scorer. That's not to say he can't or won't hit the 3 every now and then, but IMO it is not his primary skill like say an Adam Smith (or Anthony Morrow or Marvin Lewis of days gone by).

If Jackson steps up this year and plays to his potential, this would be a huge pump of adrenaline for this program. Not only for this year, but for the future of course. It would open up lots of options for CBG including moving Smith over to PG some in games to have 3 perimeter scorers on the court the defense must respect (along with MGH and QS).

Smith is the starter here without question. He is a returning top 15 scorer in the ACC from last year, has the experience in the ACC battles, etc. But, he's here for 1 year only as we all know. While CBG may be comfortable for another year after this upcoming season as some others have hypothesized, I wouldn't feel too comfortable if I were him at all. IOW, he needs to win and win immediately. The dilemma that arises is how much do you play the 1 year rental in Smith to the potential detriment of the future with Jackson? Now, that could (and I stress hopefully "could") be a great "dilemma" to have. And, it certainly can and hopefully will be managed well.

Bottom line: Depth is a good thing. Quality depth is even better. We don't need more shooters. We need more makers. I think finally CBG has that in Smith, albeit for just 1 year. I can see Smith getting 34+ minutes in some games across both the 2 and 1 positions. I can see Tadric getting some games where he's on the court 25 minutes, though I don't think that will be the case early on. Regardless of the split, I see this position as a strength for Tech...but that fully assumes these guys stay healthy AND just as important that Tadric makes the strides we all think he can and hopefully will in Year 2.

 

[GTJT622]

Small Forward

This is another position of strength for CBG. We return an All-ACC candidate and team captain in MGH. Quinton Stephens can now focus all his attention at this backup role. As a 3* coming out of HS, the time is right for QS to shine. He has shown signs of being an incredibly gifted shooter at times (the win over the Cesspool in the opener last year immediately comes to mind).

QS averaged just south of 20 mpg at 18.9 last year. In ACC games though, that went down to 14.2. We need him to provide a nice punch off the bench. I think we know pretty much what we are going to get from MGH. He (MGH) averaged 31.9 mpg in ACC contests last year which is pretty consistent with his overall mpg. QS's mpg rose from 12.8 as a freshman 2 years ago. I can see him around 18-20 again this year. Would be great to keep MGH fresher for the last 5 minutes of games. At times last year, he looked completely drained late in games - and then, we relied on him seemingly almost exclusively in last shot scenarios. I think Adam Smith will be a new and perhaps preferred option in those same scenarios this year.

MGH was .288 from outside the arc overall for the season, but much better against ACC opponents at a respectable (not great, but respectable) .378. Quinton was also better outside the arc against ACC competition than overall.

Bottom line: Barring no missed time, this should be like the 2-position for Tech...that is, a significant team strength. We have experience and quality talent here. MGH and QS are 2 completely different players with 2 completely different builds (obviously). But, there should not be significant gap or drop off when QS relieves MGH in games. Note, I know there has been some mention here or there about AD Gueye perhaps playing some 3 this year when Tech may want to go big, but I don't consider that a legit option and we might see it in garbage time against creampuffs. Likely won't see it at all, IMO.

 

[GTJT622]

The season opens 1 week from today. Woohoo!

Power Forward

The 4 and 5 positions are pretty much interchangeable so the names may wind up fitting in other places, but we'll start here with Charles Mitchell as the starter. He is a potential double-double every night out. He averaged "only" 20.8 mpg in ACC contests last year. I expect that to rise some this upcoming season - his last as a collegian. Mitchell averaged 9.2 ppg and 6.5 boards per game vs ACC opponents. He can improve on that and likely will. He joined MGH at the ACC Media Day event and hopefully will be one of the team leaders this season. Viewed as a liability at the FT line when coming in from Maryland, he actually shot 67.3% during the ACC schedule last year from the charity stripe which is better than expected. The problem is he only got to the line just under 3 times a game.

We need Mitchell and a blue collar mentality to show up consistently every night for Tech to be successful. He has the experience of the ACC battles. I know he wants to go out a winner. I look for good things to come from Chuck this winter.

James White has been labeled as the "most athletic" player on the team by CBG. He provides length to his lean 6'8" 220# frame. He can get up and down the court and will likely treat Jacket fans to some nice fast break slams this season. He can and should pitch in 17-22 minutes per game and some nights perhaps more if/when guys get into foul trouble or CBG chooses to go with a faster lineup. White is of course a grad transfer coming closer to home from Arkansas-Little Rock where he was a starter his soph and junior seasons (though last year his season ended midway through due to a broken tibia). He may be Tech's best shot blocker. The competition will be a step up for him of course, but he has the experience having played a lot of games at the D1 level.

Bottom line: I view this position not as strong as the 2 and 3 positions, but it should be an overall solid position with potential of being very good with some nice depth. AD Gueye may be in the mix here as well as the freshman Ogbonda, but I think the vast majority of minutes will be shared by Mitchell and White. If we can get 10-12 boards and 12-15 pts out of this position consistently through the season, then that would be fantastic. I think CM and JWJr are capable of that production. Get more than that and Tech is in serious business for a postseason run.

 

[GTJT622]

Center

Like I said in the previous reply, the 4 and 5 roles are pretty much interchangeable so the faces could be juggled around and you likely will never even notice during the flow of the games. This position is a huge question mark heading into the season. It could be a weakness. It could be a strength. I think CBG would be very pleased if it holds its own on both ends of the floor and while maybe not spectacular, it does not take away from the team. Again though, on the optimistic side, transfer Nick Jacobs (who actually has been with the program for a full year prior to this season, his last) has the experience and has been through the battles in a P5 conference. He's a big dude like Chuck Mitchell. He appears to be more skilled around the basket than what we had last year in this position.

If Jacobs can give us 25-28 minutes a game, grab 6 to 8 boards a game, and give us 8 to 10 points a game, I think CBG will be very pleased. The success of the position as a whole though is dependent on the development of Ben Lammers, IMO. He is trying to bulk up from a very thin body when entering Tech. We recall how Daniel Miller developed his body over his time at Tech and the hope is we see the same from Big Ben. Lammers showed occasional flashes of what he could do in limited time on the court last year, though he was obviously not ready physically for the battles in the paint against excellent ACC competition.

Keeping Jacobs fresh while giving 10-15 solid minutes by Big Ben would make CBG smile widely. And then, there is true freshman Sylvester Ogbonda. When you look at the team picture, Ogbonda and Lammers appear easily as the two tallest players on the team (both listed at 6'10"). Ogbonda likely will start out slow this year and get some late game mop up opportunities that he needs to take advantage of. Then again, there is no guarantee our starters will be out late in games against the likes of Cornell. Lammers and Ogbonda should gain a lot of experience and improve just in practice against older, bulkier guys like Mitchell and Jacobs. For the future of the program, certainly it is very important these guys develop this year as they each will be potential starters at the 4 and 5 next year. But, now is now. And Jacobs needs to be consistent and avoid fading away in games.

Bottom line: It is premature to call this a position of strength. Similarly, it is premature to call it a weakness too. As stated before, I think consistency, continued development of the 2 backups over the course of the season, and avoiding foul trouble by Jacobs, are all goals and if they can be accomplished, Tech will be just fine at this position. By mid-February, you'd like the combo of Jacobs along with Mitchell and White to be a solid force controlling the boards. While CBG's system has its flaws, one thing that has been a strength since he arrived is rebounding. Tech should be good in that key area once again. If this position falls far short of what is hoped, then this puts a lot of pressure on Mitchell and White. Early tests should give us an immediate glimpse into CBG's rotation in the paint and how these guys are going to do. If we can't or don't dominate teams like Cornell or Tennessee, who both should be perimeter-oriented teams, in the paint, then this is a poor early sign, for instance. Doesn't mean it can't or won't improve of course. When the team heads to Brooklyn over Thanksgiving, that should be a nice litmus test for all positions and the team overall of course, but especially for this position I think.