MyPerctFranchise.Net’s Potentially Perfect Picks of the Week
Each week of the football season, professional guest picker Brian Edwards will join us to give his analysis and picks on a few games he likes each week…enjoy and good luck!!!
- By Brian Edwards
- @vegasbedwards on Twitter (linkage: https://twitter.com/vegasbedwards)
- MajorWager.com Managing Editor (linkage: https://www.majorwager.com/)
- VegasInsider.com Senior Handicapper (linkage: https://www.vegasinsider.com/handicappers/brian-edwards/)
- Owner of BrianEdwardsSports.com (linkage: http://brianedwardssports.com/) Host of the BetCFB Podcast (linkage: https://www.vegasinsider.com/shows/bet-cfb/)
Luke Fickell’s team lost the third-most players (nine) of any program to the 2022 NFL Draft behind only Georgia and LSU. The Bearcats are still going to be solid in 2022, but they’re walking into a hornet’s nest Saturday in Fayetteville.
Sam Pittman did masterful work replacing holes in his roster with a nine-player group of transfers that’s ranked 10th nationally per 247Sports. The hope is that Oklahoma transfer WR Jadon Haselwood will replace some of the production from Treylon Burks, who went in the first round to the Tennessee Titans. Haselwood is a former five-star recruit who started 12 games for the Sooners in 2021.
KJ Jefferson is one of the country’s top returning QBs. He led the Razorbacks to a 9-4 SU record and an 8-4-1 ATS mark last season, rushing for a team-high 664 yards and six TDs with a 4.5 yards-per-carry average. Jefferson also threw for 2,676 yards with a 21/4 TD-INT ratio.
I think true sophomore RB Rocket Sanders is going to join Florida QB Anthony Richardson as the SEC’s two biggest breakout players in 2022. Sanders didn’t get enough touches in 2021, but he still produced 578 rushing yards, five TDs and a 5.1 YPC average.
The defense welcomes back safety Jalen Catalon, a third-team All-American in 2020 who missed the final seven games of last year after sustaining a season-ending injury. LB Bumper Pool, a third-team All-American in 2021, also returns after recording a team-best 125 tackles.
NC St. -11 at East Carolina:
BetRivers and WynnBET still had the Wolfpack at -11 as of early Thursday. If your line is -11.5, buy the half-point to -11. I consider 11 a key number (think of common final scores such as 28-17 or 35-24) like 3, 7, 10, 14, etc.
The key to this play is NC St.’s defense, a unit that ranked second in the ACC last season when it allowed only 19.7 PPG. Ten starters return and Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings has the Wolfpack No. 2 at the LB position, No. 3 in the secondary and No. 19 on the defensive line.
LB Drake Thomas earned fourth-team All-American honors in 2021 and LB Payton Wilson is back and healthy after suffering a season-ending injury in Week 2. Wilson led the ACC in tackles and was a first-team All-ACC selection in 2020.
QB Devin Leary was sensational last year, throwing for 3,433 yards with a remarkable 35/5 TD-INT ratio. He has four of his top-five pass catchers returning.
Dave Doeren’s squad went 9-3 in 2021 and was poised to put a beating on UCLA in the postseason before the Bruins pulled out of the Holiday Bowl due to positive COVID-19 test results. I have NC St. in No. 8 in my Preseason Power Rankings.
This isn’t a fade of ECU. The Pirates have an excellent senior QB in Holton Ahlers and an outstanding RB in Keaton Mitchell, who earned first-team All-AAC honors last year. Nevertheless, I expect the Wolfpack to get some separation in the third quarter and win by 14-17 points.
LSU -3 vs. FSU:
I’m confident we’ll have the home-crowd advantage with this game being played in New Orleans on Sunday night. We’ll also have the edge at QB with Jayden Daniels compared to Jordan Travis.
Perhaps most important, we’ll have a sizable advantage in the head-coaching department. In Brian Kelly’s last 41 games at Notre Dame when his team closed as the betting favorite, he posted a 40-1 record. Meanwhile, FSU’s Mike Norvell has limped to a 6-12 record in 18 games against Power-Five foes during his three-year tenure, with eight of those defeats coming by double-digit margins.
Kelly brought in the third-best group of transfers per 247Sports behind only USC and Ole Miss. He snagged 15 players out of the portal, including 10 from Power-Five programs.
In fact, Kelly added five players to the secondary who have combined to make 147 career starts, including 65 in the SEC between safety Joe Foucha and cornerback Greg Brooks. Both are Louisiana natives who weren’t recruited by Ed Orgeron and played at Arkansas previously.
LSU’s top-five pass catchers return, including All-American candidate Kayshon Boutte. Steele’s National Unit Rankings have the Tigers No. 5 at WR and No. 8 on the defensive line. College Football News ranked the secondary third nationally.
MONEY-LINE PARLAY: Let’s go with a three-teamer that should have a payout in the +150 neighborhood. I think Boston College (at home vs. Rutgers) will be a great dance partner with Arkansas and Pitt. That’s three superior teams compared to their respective opponents needing to only win outright.
Whether you tail, fade or sit on the sidelines, enjoy the games and best of luck with your wagers!
