I was bored and broke down all of the FBS head coaches and categorized where they were hired from, previous title, level they were hired from, etc. to try and figure out the statistically most viable hiring route. I pulled the info from Wikipedia's CFB HC page, then added in the necessary info. I've claimed Notre Dame and BYU as P5 schools. I also decided to add back in all of the coaches that were fired this season. Here's the number breakdown by level for current head coaches (the two P5 Other are Herm Edwards and Mack Brown) and their previous title:
Looking at winning percentages, the highest floor route seems to be hiring a G5 head coach (or 4x FCS Champ Chris Kleiman). 60% of these head coaches have winning records, including Sonny Dykes (10-0), PJ Fleck (42-26), Matt Campbell (46-38), Kalen DeBoer (6-2), Lane Kiffin (23-10), Josh Heupel (16-7), Billy Napier (6-4), Chris Kleiman (27-19), Dave Doeren (71-52), Dave Clawson (57-52), Scott Satterfield (24-23), and Jeff Brohm (34-33). A lot of these guys are considered some of the best in the game right now. Some of those with losing records include Lance Leipold (Kansas), Mike Norvell (FSU), and Dino Babers (Syracuse), all of which are having breakthrough/resurgence years. Your only real duds are/were Geoff Collins, Scott Frost, Neal Brown, and Eli Drinkwitz, while I think most people still consider Bryan Harsin a good coach that was put in a bad situation. Worth noting both Lane Kiffin and Sonny Dykes failed as P5 head coaches first before going G5 and getting another chance. On the other hand, Kleiman, DeBoer (1), Satterfield, Clawson (1), Fleck (2), and Leipold have a combined 4 years of P5 experience amongst them before becoming P5 HC. I mention the high floor of G5 head coaches, but there's also only currently 3 division champions amongst those coaches (Fleck 2019, Campbell 2020, Clawson 2021) and no conference championships. The narrative with these guys always seems to be, "If only they had more resources."
Hiring away a DC as HC is viable with some of the best current coaches having that history. Kirby Smart is the obvious one, but coaches with winning records also includes Dan Lanning (Oregon), Mike Elko (Duke), Kalani Sitake (BYU), Dave Aranda (Baylor), Pat Narduzzi (Pitt), and Mark Stoops (Kentucky). Brent Venables is 0.500 at Oklahoma, which is terrible with their history. Brent Pry (VT), Clark Lea (Vanderbilt), Greg Schiano (Rutgers), Jeff Hafley (Boston College), and Justin Wilcox (Cal) are all pretty bad, but they're also not really historically strong programs. Tom Allen (Indiana), Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame), Kyle Whittingham (Utah), and Jake Dickert (WSU) all were elevated to HC and are having varied amounts of success.
The OC results really surprised me and also makes me a bit more skeptical about pursuing someone like Jeff Lebby or Garrett Riley. Only 4 programs have a head coach that was formerly the OC at another program - Mike Locksley (Maryland - Alabama OC), Steve Sarkisian (Texas - Alabama OC), Jonathan Smith (Oregon State - Washington OC), and Tony Elliot (Virginia - Clemson OC). All four coaches have a 0.500 record or worse. The only successful P5 OC's to HC were programs that elevated their OC including Ryan Day (Ohio State), Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State), and David Shaw (Stanford), and you can count Lincoln Riley (Oklahoma) in there too if you want. However, Day, Shaw, and Riley were just handed the keys to a Ferrari from the former head coach with the full championship caliber staff intact. Kirk Ferentz is the only other hired OC, but he was in the NFL with the Baltimore Ravens.
Eight P5 schools have former position coaches (including NFL) as HC and surprisingly only two of them (Dabo Swinney and Pat Fitzgerald) were elevated from within. Otherwise you have Sam Pittman (Arkansas), Jedd Fisch (Arizona), Shane Beamer (South Carolina), and Joey McGuire (Texas Tech) who are all doing bad to okay (and Karl Dorrell is fired). Bret Bielema is a bit of an outlier since he has a lot of prior HC experience, but was technically a position coach with the Giants and Patriots before Illinois.
Former NFL head coaches are doing pretty well right now (Saban, Harbaugh, and Chip Kelly), but that's a bit unfair since they were only in the NFL due to college success. Lovie Smith and Herm Edwards are more typical examples of NFL coaches giving college football a shot and failing.
Lastly you've got poached P5 head coaches, which is fairly polar. Lincoln Riley (USC), James Franklin (PSU), and Brian Kelly (LSU) are doing really well, while Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M), Mike Leach (Mississippi State), Mario Cristobal (Miami), and Mel Tucker (Michigan State) have some work to do. There's a ton of money committed to this group of coaches so the expectations are much higher. Chryst (Wisconsin) was doing well, but maybe not well enough.
Overall, thought it was interesting seeing some of the current trends. Seems like hiring another program's OC or position coach is a trap, hiring a DC depends on the coach that mentored them, and a G5 coach is the safest way to get into the conference championship conversation (but maybe not beyond). Also indicates Matt Rhule may have a good future ahead of him as a failed NFL head coach.
Bonus - Notice that none of Dabo's former coordinators (Jeff Scott, Venables, Elliot, or even Chad Morris) have faired well at their new HC jobs, indicating he might not be the best coach to model your program after.
| DC | OC | P5 HC | G5 HC | FCS HC | NFL HC | Position Coach | Other | |
| P5 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| G5 | 8 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 16 | 3 |
| Total | 25 | 29 | 13 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 5 |
Looking at winning percentages, the highest floor route seems to be hiring a G5 head coach (or 4x FCS Champ Chris Kleiman). 60% of these head coaches have winning records, including Sonny Dykes (10-0), PJ Fleck (42-26), Matt Campbell (46-38), Kalen DeBoer (6-2), Lane Kiffin (23-10), Josh Heupel (16-7), Billy Napier (6-4), Chris Kleiman (27-19), Dave Doeren (71-52), Dave Clawson (57-52), Scott Satterfield (24-23), and Jeff Brohm (34-33). A lot of these guys are considered some of the best in the game right now. Some of those with losing records include Lance Leipold (Kansas), Mike Norvell (FSU), and Dino Babers (Syracuse), all of which are having breakthrough/resurgence years. Your only real duds are/were Geoff Collins, Scott Frost, Neal Brown, and Eli Drinkwitz, while I think most people still consider Bryan Harsin a good coach that was put in a bad situation. Worth noting both Lane Kiffin and Sonny Dykes failed as P5 head coaches first before going G5 and getting another chance. On the other hand, Kleiman, DeBoer (1), Satterfield, Clawson (1), Fleck (2), and Leipold have a combined 4 years of P5 experience amongst them before becoming P5 HC. I mention the high floor of G5 head coaches, but there's also only currently 3 division champions amongst those coaches (Fleck 2019, Campbell 2020, Clawson 2021) and no conference championships. The narrative with these guys always seems to be, "If only they had more resources."
Hiring away a DC as HC is viable with some of the best current coaches having that history. Kirby Smart is the obvious one, but coaches with winning records also includes Dan Lanning (Oregon), Mike Elko (Duke), Kalani Sitake (BYU), Dave Aranda (Baylor), Pat Narduzzi (Pitt), and Mark Stoops (Kentucky). Brent Venables is 0.500 at Oklahoma, which is terrible with their history. Brent Pry (VT), Clark Lea (Vanderbilt), Greg Schiano (Rutgers), Jeff Hafley (Boston College), and Justin Wilcox (Cal) are all pretty bad, but they're also not really historically strong programs. Tom Allen (Indiana), Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame), Kyle Whittingham (Utah), and Jake Dickert (WSU) all were elevated to HC and are having varied amounts of success.
The OC results really surprised me and also makes me a bit more skeptical about pursuing someone like Jeff Lebby or Garrett Riley. Only 4 programs have a head coach that was formerly the OC at another program - Mike Locksley (Maryland - Alabama OC), Steve Sarkisian (Texas - Alabama OC), Jonathan Smith (Oregon State - Washington OC), and Tony Elliot (Virginia - Clemson OC). All four coaches have a 0.500 record or worse. The only successful P5 OC's to HC were programs that elevated their OC including Ryan Day (Ohio State), Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State), and David Shaw (Stanford), and you can count Lincoln Riley (Oklahoma) in there too if you want. However, Day, Shaw, and Riley were just handed the keys to a Ferrari from the former head coach with the full championship caliber staff intact. Kirk Ferentz is the only other hired OC, but he was in the NFL with the Baltimore Ravens.
Eight P5 schools have former position coaches (including NFL) as HC and surprisingly only two of them (Dabo Swinney and Pat Fitzgerald) were elevated from within. Otherwise you have Sam Pittman (Arkansas), Jedd Fisch (Arizona), Shane Beamer (South Carolina), and Joey McGuire (Texas Tech) who are all doing bad to okay (and Karl Dorrell is fired). Bret Bielema is a bit of an outlier since he has a lot of prior HC experience, but was technically a position coach with the Giants and Patriots before Illinois.
Former NFL head coaches are doing pretty well right now (Saban, Harbaugh, and Chip Kelly), but that's a bit unfair since they were only in the NFL due to college success. Lovie Smith and Herm Edwards are more typical examples of NFL coaches giving college football a shot and failing.
Lastly you've got poached P5 head coaches, which is fairly polar. Lincoln Riley (USC), James Franklin (PSU), and Brian Kelly (LSU) are doing really well, while Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M), Mike Leach (Mississippi State), Mario Cristobal (Miami), and Mel Tucker (Michigan State) have some work to do. There's a ton of money committed to this group of coaches so the expectations are much higher. Chryst (Wisconsin) was doing well, but maybe not well enough.
Overall, thought it was interesting seeing some of the current trends. Seems like hiring another program's OC or position coach is a trap, hiring a DC depends on the coach that mentored them, and a G5 coach is the safest way to get into the conference championship conversation (but maybe not beyond). Also indicates Matt Rhule may have a good future ahead of him as a failed NFL head coach.
Bonus - Notice that none of Dabo's former coordinators (Jeff Scott, Venables, Elliot, or even Chad Morris) have faired well at their new HC jobs, indicating he might not be the best coach to model your program after.
