BasketJackets: Game 19 vs Louisville, Jan. 23 Sat., 4pm (ESPN-2)

[GTJT622]

Hopefully an extra few days off will serve as a nice refresh for our guys as they prep for a stretch run over the last third of the regular season. The key at the moment is for CBG and especially the Good Guys to disallow the disappointing loss last Saturday to negatively affect them with a solid Cardinals team coming to town.

UofL is currently #20 in the RPI. Tech is 60th. Louisville currently though is rated #1 in the nation in Jeff Sagarin's computer system.

When the spread is released Friday afternoon, we can expect the Cards to open as around 8 pt favorites.

Tech hosted UofL late last season in their first year in the ACC, losing by 1 pt, 52-51. The 2 teams meet twice this season as the Good Guys must travel to Kentucky on March 1st.

Of course, the 2 programs used to be a part of the now-defunct Metro Conference back in the late 70's. Louisville continued on in the Metro for its existence while Tech moved on to the ACC.

Historically, Tech is a respectable 13-16 against UofL. I say "respectable" because the Cards program has consistently been very strong for many decades - far better than Tech's. The series was tied 13-13 after 2 Tech wins in 1997. Since then, Louisville has won 3 straight including last year's 1 pt win at the Gigantic Hooter as well as a NCAAT 2nd round blowout of a good Tech team in 2005. Of course, UofL was ranked #4 in the nation at that time. Tech is 7-4 in the series in games played in Atlanta.

UofL is 2nd in the ACC currently sitting at 15-3 overall and 4-1 in the conference. Rick Pitino's guys are 1-1 on the road in the ACC with a 5-pt win at NCSU and a 4-pt loss at Clemson. The Cards have 4 guys scoring in double digits. They are:

• Damion Lee - 16.6 ppg
• Trey Lewis - 12.2 ppg
• Chinanu Onuaku - 10.6 ppg (also leads the team in boards per game at 9.1)
  
• Quentin Snider - 10.4 ppg (also leads the team in assists per game at 3.7)

Snider shoots 44.6% from outside the arc, though Lee and Lewis attempt far more 3's than he has. Both Lee and Lewis are money at the free throw line with each shooting over 84% there.

Where Louisville is really standing out however is in their defense. They are 3rd in the nation in points allowed per game at 58.2. They are 12th in the nation in boards per game at 42.4.

Can Tech execute its offense against this tough defense? Can Tech defend its home court again? Can Tech's big guys hold their ground on the boards against a relentless rebounding team?

Starting with this game, Tech begins a 5-game stretch where we will be underdogs heading in. Hopefully the guys can win 2 or 3 and avoid going 1-9 or 2-8 in the first 10 games of conference play. Huge game for any chances of turning the ACC schedule around. We've seen teams like NC State this week pull off a huge surprise. It can happen.

Go Jackets!

 

[BornAJacket]

should be an interesting game.

The Louisville fans usually travel well, but with this next winter storm Friday/Saturday travel may be tough for them.

Louisville is a good defensive team. What's the over/under?

If GT really focusses on rebounding and doesn't bail for transition, I think they can out rebound these guys.

 

[GTJT622]

Point spread will come out around 3pm on Friday. O/U won't be released until Saturday morning (game day).

 

[BornAJacket]

125?

 

[GTJT622]

Higher than that...maybe around 136. Only a SWAG of course.

 

[SoulSr]

I have four tickets to the game on Sat 1/23 in Section 102 row 19. I would like to trade them for seats in Section 100 behind the visitor team bench. Let me know if you are interested.

Thanks

 

[GTJT622]

UofL opens as 5.5 pt favorites. A little lower than I expected. I expected it to be around 8.

 

[stech81]

UofL opens as 5.5 pt favorites. A little lower than I expected. I expected it to be around 8.

I see you still have power. If you keep watching TV they will let you know if you lose power.

 

[GTJT622]

So far so good, mate. Winds picking up and tomorrow will be the big threat. About 6 inches on the ground now and another 6 expected before midnight. Fingers crossed.

 

[ESPNjacket]

Kenpom's ratings have Louisville by 6, a total of 134.
More kenpom:
Louisville is #1 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and #1 in offensive rebounding percentage.
On paper, this is a really bad matchup for GT.
Posting on here feels strange. Like I am actually one of the five guys talking to each other that the AJC thought in the '90s.

 

[GTJT622]

I am going out on a huge snow-covered limb for this game forecast, mate.

Tech will play Louisville very close and will in fact lead for about half the game up until 5 minutes left and then Tech will fall apart and blow it late losing, 70-63, as the Cardinals make their free throws late to seal it.

I know. I know. I'm a risk taker. Ballsy. Willing to stray from the norm.

 

[ESPNjacket]

Radical, you are a radical. Nothing like that has ever happened before.

 

[GTJT622]

I'm a visionary. This spring, Danny Hall's bunch will underachieve, finish under .500 in the ACC, make a regional though at a SEC school and get bounced from the regional after 3 or 4 games.

See? It's gutsy forecasts like that which sets me apart from the norm.

I have skills.

 

[stech81]

Kenpom's ratings have Louisville by 6, a total of 134.
More kenpom:
Louisville is #1 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and #1 in offensive rebounding percentage.
On paper, this is a really bad matchup for GT.
Posting on here feels strange. Like I am actually one of the five guys talking to each other that the AJC thought in the '90s.

No there are 7 of us. You make 8

 

[GTJT622]

O/U opens at 136.5. Cards now laying 6.

(So far so good. No loss of power. About 14" on the ground and still snowing steady. Winds picking up. Fingers crossed to get through the day.)

 

[Buzzforlife]

Cards are staying here, so the game will go on. We had some ice, parcipitation, however nothing sticking like a foot or more. Hope you don't have to go out, other than walking beloved Ginger the Beagle.

 

[GTJT622]

Out-damn-standing first half by the Good Guys! Good energy. Super intensity. Love it.

Hopefully we can replicate it in the 2nd half.

 

[Buzzforlife]

Wait until next year...or the year after...no, the year after that, make that the following season in 2019-20 with Craig Neal while in his third year to be totally fair.

 

[GTJT622]

About like I figured it would go. We fall apart and the Cards hit their FT's down the stretch. Rinse. Repeat. Yawn.

The Fighting Mark Prices are drilling Western Kentucky by 23 with 7 minutes to go in their game tonight, FWIW.

 

[Deadsmurf]

I am going out on a huge snow-covered limb for this game forecast, mate.

Tech will play Louisville very close and will in fact lead for about half the game up until 5 minutes left and then Tech will fall apart and blow it late losing, 70-63, as the Cardinals make their free throws late to seal it.

I know. I know. I'm a risk taker. Ballsy. Willing to stray from the norm.

Holy cow! That was a good game forecast. I pretty much predicted the same thing but didn't post it.

 

[Deadsmurf]

About like I figured it would go. We fall apart and the Cards hit their FT's down the stretch. Rinse. Repeat. Yawn.

The Fighting Mark Prices are drilling Western Kentucky by 23 with 7 minutes to go in their game tonight, FWIW.

I would be a fan of either Price or Neal coming as the next BB HC to succeed Gregory down the road when Tech gathers enough money or clears paying coaching salary debt to make it worthwhile for either of them and give them enough money to hire a decent staff.

Gregory is recruiting length in the wings but unfortunately most of them can't shoot.

 

[BornAJacket]

Marcus Georges Hunt fouls out and the team scores zero points in the final minute. Actually the game changed when he got 4 fouls knowing that he could not be nearly as aggressive with the ball. PG continues to be the weak link, Not MGH, but the others who should be playing there.

Very disappointed again.