ACC Presidents: Contraction means Survival
Sometimes you must sacrifice the good of the few for the good of the many... it is time for The ACC to pursue Contraction to 12 (plus Notre Dame), not Expansion to 16. Maryland has made this option feasible by leaving and now, Wake Forest is the elephant sitting quietly in the corner trying to remain invisible. The free market system has been unleashed, and it is no longer possible for a Conference member to sit quietly while it contributes very little to the common good.
.
Wake Forest is a very fine little university, with great academics and better revenue sports than should be possible with an undergrad enrollment of 4775. But it belongs in the CAA with William and Mary, the Atlantic 10 with Richmond , the Big East with Villanova, or even Conference USA with UNC Charlotte/ECU/ODU if ti thinks FBS football is important. Liberty University , another nearby Baptist university, is planning to step up to the FBS ? perhaps they join a league together.
.
It takes very little analysis to determine that the ACC gains very little strategically by having Wake Forest as a member, located just 80 miles west of the UNC/Duke/NC State triangle. Actually, three schools is probably one too many in North Carolina, but four is completely illogical ? (and as Pete Gillen said, "Duke is Duke, they're on TV more than Leave It to Beaver")... four would be too many even for a state like Florida , so for North Carolina , the time has arrived for contraction.
.
Nate Silver's interesting statistical approximation of fan base sizes
(NY Times, September 19, 2011, http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/ )
uses a number of assumptions out of necessity, and has a few fan bases sized questionably, but sheds some light on the ACC's current structure. Wake Forest fans are estimated to number approximately 150K, while no other ACC school had less than 450K and the average size is 820K (Syracuse and Pittsburgh are also close to that figure). With the ACC's three other universities in North Carolina , that adds close to nothing, in terms of TV ratings.
.
Besides the immediate boost in each school revenues by splitting the pie one less way, of greater importance is that this move allows the ACC to return to 12 schools plus semi-member Notre Dame. Part of what has been/will be lost through expansion is the collegiality of playing league members frequently.
(see Stewart Mandel's article in SI.com http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/stewart_mandel/11/20/big-ten-expansion-maryland-rutgers/index.html?sct=obnetwork )
Schools will see teams from the opposite Division very seldom in Conferences that grow to number 14 or 16 members (6 or 7 same-Division games) since there are only 8 or 9 regular season Conference games in total.
.
In football, with only 12 members, each school can continue to play each of the 5 others in their Division annually and half (3) from the other side - so no team should have any other Conference school off of its football schedule for more than one year at a time ? and every 4 year undergraduate student (and player) will have seen every other Conference school visit their stadium and have an away game at each.
.
If Notre Dame wants to keep the ACC as the perfect mistress - a great harbor of good academic schools for basketball/soccer/lacrosse/etc. while maintaining football semi-independence, it will need to make some concessions as well. It is obviously very much in Notre Dame's best interest to have the ACC remain intact and strong so it can maintain this arrangement where it can retain a National football schedule.
In order for this system to survive, however, Notre Dame should agree to schedule 6 of 12 football games per season against the ACC - Not 5. This is important.
.
With a 12 team ACC, the one extra game with Notre Dame annually ensures that all ACC schools will play ND every other year and can tell every recruit that during their 4 years, they will have a home game against ND and an away game at Notre Dame. That is good for ACC recruiting and for ACC football schools such as Florida State and Clemson, and for the ACC TV contract.
.
Notre Dame still would have 6 games with which they can schedule Navy/USC/Stanford plus 3 more such as Michigan State or Purdue and others which could include Texas/Oklahoma/BYU. etc..
.
While realigning, The ACC should organize itself into 4 pods with 3 teams each (for football only): Boston College/Syracuse/Pittsburgh, Virginia/Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech, North Carolina/NC State/Duke, and Clemson/Florida State/Miami. Each school would play the two others in its pod and also 2 out of 3 in each of the other pods annually to maintain geographical and competitive balance.
.
For Notre Dame football scheduling purposes only, three "clusters" of 4 teams each should be used: Boston College/Syracuse/Pittsburgh/Virginia, North Carolina/Duke/NC State/Virginia Tech, and Clemson/Georgia Tech/Florida State/Miami.
.
Notre Dame would play two teams annually from each cluster (one home/one away) to maintain geographic and competitive balance. If allowed by NCAA rules, serious consideration should also be given to counting Notre Dame's ACC games as "Conference" games and allowing Notre Dame to be eligible to play in the ACC Championship game. Pit the two teams from amongst the 4 "pod champs" plus Notre Dame that have the best Conference winning percentages. Six teams would have 9 ACC games (those that played Notre Dame), six would have 8 ACC games and Notre Dame would have 6 conference games annually. It's not perfect, but it would enhance the ACC championship game value. If the two best pod winners had one loss each, Notre Dame would have to go 6-0 to make the Championship. If the second best pod-winner had two losses (7-2 or 6-2), Notre Dame would have to be 5-1 to make the championship.
.At the same time, The ACC should be developing an ACC Network to rival the Big10 Network and a research consortium modeled after the CIC but that discussion can be left for another day.
.
Wake can still be an ACC academic associate - similar to the arrangement the University of Chicago has with the Big 10, and collaborate in research activities. The ACC should also agree to schedule non-conference games with Wake Forest in all sports. The ACC may have contraction rules in place that govern compensation, but perhaps 2/3 of the Maryland's departure penalty could be directed to Wake Forest as part of the arrangement.
.
It is possible that adding Louisville or UConn to the ACC as a 14th member allows the ACC to survive and perhaps FSU/Clemson/Georgia Tech don't bolt for the Big12, or UNC/UVA/GT for the Big 10, and/or Vt/NCS or UVA/UNC to the SEC but this plan is better, The ACC definitely survives and likely flourishes.
Sometimes you must sacrifice the good of the few for the good of the many... it is time for The ACC to pursue Contraction to 12 (plus Notre Dame), not Expansion to 16. Maryland has made this option feasible by leaving and now, Wake Forest is the elephant sitting quietly in the corner trying to remain invisible. The free market system has been unleashed, and it is no longer possible for a Conference member to sit quietly while it contributes very little to the common good.
.
Wake Forest is a very fine little university, with great academics and better revenue sports than should be possible with an undergrad enrollment of 4775. But it belongs in the CAA with William and Mary, the Atlantic 10 with Richmond , the Big East with Villanova, or even Conference USA with UNC Charlotte/ECU/ODU if ti thinks FBS football is important. Liberty University , another nearby Baptist university, is planning to step up to the FBS ? perhaps they join a league together.
.
It takes very little analysis to determine that the ACC gains very little strategically by having Wake Forest as a member, located just 80 miles west of the UNC/Duke/NC State triangle. Actually, three schools is probably one too many in North Carolina, but four is completely illogical ? (and as Pete Gillen said, "Duke is Duke, they're on TV more than Leave It to Beaver")... four would be too many even for a state like Florida , so for North Carolina , the time has arrived for contraction.
.
Nate Silver's interesting statistical approximation of fan base sizes
(NY Times, September 19, 2011, http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/ )
uses a number of assumptions out of necessity, and has a few fan bases sized questionably, but sheds some light on the ACC's current structure. Wake Forest fans are estimated to number approximately 150K, while no other ACC school had less than 450K and the average size is 820K (Syracuse and Pittsburgh are also close to that figure). With the ACC's three other universities in North Carolina , that adds close to nothing, in terms of TV ratings.
.
Besides the immediate boost in each school revenues by splitting the pie one less way, of greater importance is that this move allows the ACC to return to 12 schools plus semi-member Notre Dame. Part of what has been/will be lost through expansion is the collegiality of playing league members frequently.
(see Stewart Mandel's article in SI.com http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/stewart_mandel/11/20/big-ten-expansion-maryland-rutgers/index.html?sct=obnetwork )
Schools will see teams from the opposite Division very seldom in Conferences that grow to number 14 or 16 members (6 or 7 same-Division games) since there are only 8 or 9 regular season Conference games in total.
.
In football, with only 12 members, each school can continue to play each of the 5 others in their Division annually and half (3) from the other side - so no team should have any other Conference school off of its football schedule for more than one year at a time ? and every 4 year undergraduate student (and player) will have seen every other Conference school visit their stadium and have an away game at each.
.
If Notre Dame wants to keep the ACC as the perfect mistress - a great harbor of good academic schools for basketball/soccer/lacrosse/etc. while maintaining football semi-independence, it will need to make some concessions as well. It is obviously very much in Notre Dame's best interest to have the ACC remain intact and strong so it can maintain this arrangement where it can retain a National football schedule.
In order for this system to survive, however, Notre Dame should agree to schedule 6 of 12 football games per season against the ACC - Not 5. This is important.
.
With a 12 team ACC, the one extra game with Notre Dame annually ensures that all ACC schools will play ND every other year and can tell every recruit that during their 4 years, they will have a home game against ND and an away game at Notre Dame. That is good for ACC recruiting and for ACC football schools such as Florida State and Clemson, and for the ACC TV contract.
.
Notre Dame still would have 6 games with which they can schedule Navy/USC/Stanford plus 3 more such as Michigan State or Purdue and others which could include Texas/Oklahoma/BYU. etc..
.
While realigning, The ACC should organize itself into 4 pods with 3 teams each (for football only): Boston College/Syracuse/Pittsburgh, Virginia/Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech, North Carolina/NC State/Duke, and Clemson/Florida State/Miami. Each school would play the two others in its pod and also 2 out of 3 in each of the other pods annually to maintain geographical and competitive balance.
.
For Notre Dame football scheduling purposes only, three "clusters" of 4 teams each should be used: Boston College/Syracuse/Pittsburgh/Virginia, North Carolina/Duke/NC State/Virginia Tech, and Clemson/Georgia Tech/Florida State/Miami.
.
Notre Dame would play two teams annually from each cluster (one home/one away) to maintain geographic and competitive balance. If allowed by NCAA rules, serious consideration should also be given to counting Notre Dame's ACC games as "Conference" games and allowing Notre Dame to be eligible to play in the ACC Championship game. Pit the two teams from amongst the 4 "pod champs" plus Notre Dame that have the best Conference winning percentages. Six teams would have 9 ACC games (those that played Notre Dame), six would have 8 ACC games and Notre Dame would have 6 conference games annually. It's not perfect, but it would enhance the ACC championship game value. If the two best pod winners had one loss each, Notre Dame would have to go 6-0 to make the Championship. If the second best pod-winner had two losses (7-2 or 6-2), Notre Dame would have to be 5-1 to make the championship.
.At the same time, The ACC should be developing an ACC Network to rival the Big10 Network and a research consortium modeled after the CIC but that discussion can be left for another day.
.
Wake can still be an ACC academic associate - similar to the arrangement the University of Chicago has with the Big 10, and collaborate in research activities. The ACC should also agree to schedule non-conference games with Wake Forest in all sports. The ACC may have contraction rules in place that govern compensation, but perhaps 2/3 of the Maryland's departure penalty could be directed to Wake Forest as part of the arrangement.
.
It is possible that adding Louisville or UConn to the ACC as a 14th member allows the ACC to survive and perhaps FSU/Clemson/Georgia Tech don't bolt for the Big12, or UNC/UVA/GT for the Big 10, and/or Vt/NCS or UVA/UNC to the SEC but this plan is better, The ACC definitely survives and likely flourishes.
